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The Scottish economy grew by 0.4% in 2016 despite the continued challenges posed by the slowdown in the oil and gas sector, but contracted by 0.2% in the fourth quarter reflecting, in part, lower consumer confidence in Scotland compared to the rest of the UK, as a result of the Brexit vote. Construction sector output contracted by 0.8% in the fourth quarter following exceptionally fast growth during 2015, however, output in the sector remained significantly higher than it was in 2014.

The Scottish Parliament debated Scotland’s Economy on 19 April 2017.

Maintaining a frictionless border between Scotland and the rest of the UK is in the economic interests of everyone. The rest of the UK exports more to Scotland than it exports to any other country in Europe, and to any other country in the world, bar the US.

The biggest threat to the Scottish economy is a hard Brexit that could cost the country 80,000 jobs after a decade.

During what has been a challenging time for the industry, the recent Oil and Gas UK Business Outlook and Scottish Chambers of Commerce reports demonstrate that confidence is slowing returning to the sector. We have seen first oil from the Flyndre field come on stream, exciting developments taking place in the West of Shetland region, and the recent licensing round which saw 25 licenses awarded. These announcements highlight that this is an important time for the industry, with the focus firmly on maximising economic recovery, efficiency and sustainability of extraction and cost reduction.

The North Sea still holds significant potential with up to 20 billion boe remaining available for potential extraction. With the key economic levers currently reserved at Westminster, the Scottish Government is however doing everything within its devolved powers to support the industry and its workforce through these challenging times and ensure that the North Sea remains open for business and will continue to encourage the UK Government to take necessary steps to stimulate exploration, promote maintenance of infrastructure and help sustain late life assets and future develop Scotland’s decommissioning capability.

The Scottish Resource Allocation Formula (known as NRAC) is used to assess NHS boards’ relative need for funding to promote equity of access to services across Scotland. One of the main components of the formula is the morbidity and life circumstances adjustment (MLC) which takes account of national variation in need for all types of healthcare including cancer treatment.

In 2017-18 NHS Ayrshire and Arran’s resource funding will increase by £11.5 million (1.7%) to £680.6 million. This includes an additional £1.5 million in additional NRAC parity funding to bring the board within 1% of their target share of funding.

In March 2016, to further improve cancer outcomes nationally, we launched our cancer strategy, ‘Beating Cancer: Ambition and Action’, accompanied by
£100 million of investment over the coming years. This strategy serves as a blueprint for the future of cancer services in Scotland, aimed at improving the prevention, detection, diagnosis, treatment, aftercare and ultimately the survival, of all people affected by cancer, regardless of where they live.

The Scottish Government published guidance for civil servants on their role and conduct during the local government election campaign on 18 January 2017. This guidance was in operation between 13 April and 4 May 2017. Similar guidance on the UK general election campaign was published on 20 April and will be in operation from 22 April to 8 June 2017. Both guidance documents have been actively drawn to the attention of all Scottish Government staff, and also to national devolved public bodies.

These guidance documents are available on the Scottish Government website at https://beta.gov.scot/publications/scottish-local-government-election-guidance-2017/ and https://beta.gov.scot/publications/uk-general-election-2017/.

Details of the date for the next Government Expenditure & Revenue Scotland (GERS) publication are provided on the Scottish Government's 'Official Statistics - Forthcoming Publications' webpage, available at:

http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/ForthcomingPubs

The Scottish Government remains committed to realising the vast renewable resource potential of the Shetland, Orkney and the Western Isles. Since 2012 we have worked closely with the UK Government, Islands councils, wind developers, SSE and Ofgem to address the barriers to deployment of large scale wind projects on the Islands. The unique scale of community investment in the projects would deliver direct economic benefit to the island communities and drive more balanced economic growth.

In Stornoway on 10 April 2017, I co-chaired the fifth meeting of the Scottish Island Renewable Delivery Forum with the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Greg Clark. This was a productive meeting, arranged at our request, and provided an important opportunity for the island stakeholders to discuss the case for Island wind with the Secretary of State, in person and reiterate points that had been included within the Scottish Government’s detailed submission to the BEIS Consultation on non-mainland GB onshore wind. This constructive discussion which laid bare the current risk to economic development of the Islands Council areas in the event projects do not have a viable ‘route to market’ will inform the outcome of that consultation.

Further detail of the Scottish Government’s written response to the consultation, which sets out the strong case for Island Wind, can be found at: http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0051/00513662.pdf

An independent review, entitled “The Future of Fisheries Management in Scotland”, was undertaken in 2010. The recommendations from this review have used to inform the Scottish Government’s subsequent approach to promoting reform of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP).

It is well known that the CFP has been damaging to the Scottish fishing industry and we have consistently argued that the policy is not fit for purpose and should be scrapped or substantially reformed. The Scottish Government will continue to take every opportunity to champion further reforms of the CFP, and the interests of the Scottish fishing industry, wherever possible.

Scotland does not have a 'national deficit' as Scotland is not, yet, an independent nation in its own right. Government Expenditure and Revenues Scotland (GERS) present estimates of both the income and expenditure of Scotland while still part of the UK and including contributions to UK spending priorities that would not necessarily be replicated in an Independent Scotland.

However, tax revenues from oil and gas production, which flow to the UK Treasury and which have exceeded over £330 billion in the period since first production in UKCS, ultimately depend on a range of interrelated factors including global production levels, demand, stock levels, prices, the cost of production and profitability.

The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest Oil Market Report, published on
13 April 2017, forecasts global demand to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2017. The IEA also produce long term forecasts for energy demand under a number of policy scenarios, with global demand for oil and gas increasing under all but one scenario in the period to 2040.

The Scottish Government remains committed to maintaining domestic oil and gas exploration and production, and maximising economic recovery. Hydrocarbon production from the North Sea is a highly-regulated industry, with some of the most advanced and comparatively least polluting production methods in the world and this is a matter of great credit to the Scottish and UK sector's workforce. The Scottish Government’s draft Energy Strategy was published in January 2017, alongside the draft Climate Change Plan, and clearly articulates this within the context of Scotland’s ambitious climate change objectives and our drive for continued inclusive economic growth.

The North Sea has a bright future, and with the right fiscal and regulatory environment, there is potential for up to 20 billion barrels of oil equivalent remaining in the UK Continental Shelf. For this to happen, we need UK Ministers to heed our calls for a supportive fiscal regime for exploration, maintenance of critical infrastructure and to support late life assets and subsequent decommissioning. The Scottish Government will, for our part, focus our efforts on supporting the sector to protect employment, provide valuable primary energy supplies, develop its skills as part of the transition to a low carbon economy, and develop a greater international supply chain that is innovative and generate export led growth.

Scotland’s economic fundamentals are strong. Even without oil, GDP per head in Scotland is higher than the UK average excluding London.

The Common Fisheries Policy provides a framework for managing and supporting Scotland’s sea fisheries, aquaculture and fish processing sectors. Together these sectors contributed £952 million in GVA in 2014.