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The Scottish Government is saddened to learn of the expected redundancies at Total and will do everything it can to support those affected. The oil and gas sector remains a key component of our energy system and our economy. This will be a very difficult time for those employees affected and their families.

The Scottish Government stands ready to offer every assistance to any affected employees through our Partnership Action for Continuing Employment (PACE) initiative. PACE support was offered via engagement with the HR team at TOTAL on 19 March when our PACE team provided full information on PACE support to the company. In addition, with the information we have, we believe that staff affected in this situation are highly likely to meet the eligibility criteria for accessing the Transition Training Fund and its associated support programmes. It is in our objective to ensure our agencies and partners are able to provide skills development and employability support, and in this way PACE aims to minimise the time people affected by redundancy are out of work. I hope it is of some reassurance that PACE has an excellent track record of supporting individuals with work and other positive destinations such as self-employment.

The Scottish Government provides support for the film and video sector through Creative Scotland and Scottish Enterprise as well as other bodies and projects such MG Alba (for the Gaelic short film competition FilmG), the Glasgow Short Film Festival, the National Film and Television School, the Centre for the Moving Image and the Moving Image Archive. Details of these are in the following table. The Scottish Government also funds other bodies with broader remits some of whose work can contribute to the sector such as Creative Skillset, Event Scotland and the Edinburgh Festivals Expo Fund. O ver the past five years (2011-12 to 

‎ 2016-17), Scottish Enterprise has invested over £11 million (£11.5million) in 38 games companies.

Source: Creative Scotland, Scottish Enterprise, Scottish Government

1. The data for Creative Scotland and Scottish Enterprise is for screen funding so may relate in part to television.

2. Data for Scottish Enterprise is for screen industries, encompassing companies working in animation, content production, digital technologies, the supply chain and associated projects.

3. Due to data capture systems used prior to 2012, Scottish Enterprise has been unable to disaggregate film and video data for that period.

Statistics on the number of registered enterprises in the creative industries are available at: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/Publications/GrowthSectors/Database .

The data is broken down by sector, including ‘film and video’, and the most recent available data is:

Source: Inter-Departmental Business Register (via the Growth Sector Statistics Database)

Statistics on employment in the creative industries are available at: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/Publications/GrowthSectors/Database .

The data is broken down by sector, including ‘film and video’, and the most recent data is:

Source: Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) (via the Growth Sector Statistics Database)

Note: Employment estimates from BRES include employees plus the number of working owners who receive drawings or a share of the profits but are not paid via PAYE. However, the employment estimate does not include those who are self-employed operating below the VAT threshold with no employees.

The Scottish Government monitors domestic and international energy research and reports and considers the potential implications for Scottish energy sectors and policies.

In their February Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) highlighted that strong growth in oil production in non-OPEC countries, particularly tight oil production in the United States, is likely to grow faster than demand, and therefore market fundamentals look less supportive of prices. However, the IEA also highlighted the extraordinarily rapid fall in OECD oil stocks over 2017 and raised their estimates of oil demand growth in 2018 due to the positive global economic picture. The IEA report makes clear that the components of the oil market balance are dynamic and can change rapidly, and as a result prices could be maintained at recent levels even as production from the United States rises.

The North Sea oil and gas sector has faced a number of challenging years, but there is increasing evidence that the worst of the downturn is over and that there is growing confidence in the sector. The industry has worked hard to improve efficiencies and reduce costs and put itself on a more sustainable footing in the face of potentially changing oil prices.

The Scottish Government will continue to support the sector and its workforce as much as it can within its devolved powers, while continuing to call upon the UK Government to provide the support it requires at this critical time in its recovery, particularly while exploration activity remains near record lows.

The Scottish Government monitors domestic and international energy research and reports and considers the potential implications for Scottish energy sectors and policies.

OPEC’s February Oil Market Report highlighted that the OPEC Reference Basket of crude oil prices increased for the fifth straight month in January to their highest monthly average since November 2014. On the back of a strengthening world economy, OPEC also increased their estimates of the growth in global oil demand to 1.59 million barrels per day, while also revising up their estimates of the growth in world oil supply.

The Scottish Government published an experimental statistics development paper on the 22 February 2018 which contains provisional estimates for exports of oil and gas from Scottish waters for 2015 and 2016. It shows that at a time of increasing production, the value of exports has decreased in recent years due to the lower oil and gas prices experienced since 2014. Changes to the oil price as a result of market fundamentals, such as global oil demand and supply, would therefore feed through to changes in the value of offshore exports.

The Scottish Government will continue to support the sector and its workforce as much as it can within its devolved powers, while continuing to call upon the UK Government to provide the support it requires at this critical time in its recovery, particularly while exploration activity remains near record lows.

North Sea oil and gas production across 2018 is forecast to be the highest since 2010, reaching an estimated 1.9 million barrels per day, as outlined by global energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie. Major projects predicted to come onstream in 2018 such as Mariner and Clair Ridge will drive this increase.

These projections are in line with the sentiments expressed in the recent Oil & Gas UK (OGUK) 2017 Economic Report and Aberdeen, Grampian & Chamber of Commerce (AGCC) 27th Oil and Gas Survey, and DNV-GL oil and gas industry outlook 2018, which highlight the return of confidence to the sector.

The exact impact of the increase in production will depend on a number of factors, including the oil price, costs, and demand, but all else equal should benefit Scotland’s economy.

(a) Exports: The majority of oil and gas produced in Scotland is currently exported, and in 2016 the total value of crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGL) and gas exports is estimated to be £13.3 billion. In recent years, the value of exports has decreased while production has increased due to lower oil and gas oil prices.

(b) Economy: Oil and gas production is estimated to be worth £9.2 billion to the Scottish economy in terms of its economic impact, with this being the equivalent of 5.8% of total Scottish GDP, in 2016.

(c) Employment: Increased production will help support the 115,000 jobs supported by the industry here in Scotland and aid the sector in its return to growth after a number of challenging years.