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As part of our whole system planning to prepare for this coming Winter, we have been working collaboratively with COSLA, NHS Boards, Health and Social Care Partnerships and other partners to assess and promote whole system resilience across a range of pressures, including any significant increase in COVID-19 infection and hospitalisation. In response to learning lessons from last year, we have started this planning process much earlier and have hosted a Winter Summit for Health and Social Care Leaders this summer.

The Hospital Occupancy and Delayed Discharge Action Plan sets out to local systems the activity that will increase capacity and resilience to manage various pressures including increases in COVID-19 and other infections. Boards and HSCPs are returning a quarterly assessment to give assurance regarding their preparedness as we approach winter and the inevitable surges in illness we will see. As part of our Health and Social Care Winter Plan for 2023-24, we are also seeking assurance from local systems on their preparations through a Winter Checklist.

It will also be critical for the public to be aware and utilise the right care at the right time through the various pathways available to them including community pharmacy, NHS 24 and their own GP.

Many items within the Baby Box such as thermometers, play mat, changing mat, books, and the box itself are all suitable for a premature baby, and the clothing will be suitable as the baby grows. The Scottish Government seeks to deliver best value by purchasing the contents of the Baby Box in bulk, in line with Scottish birth rates. Costs would increase significantly if we moved to purchase smaller amounts of different items. Therefore in the current financial climate we do not plan to make any adaptions to the Baby Box. The Scottish Government is keen to offer financial support to parents or primary carers of babies who are born prematurely and have to receive inpatient care. All parents whose children have to stay overnight in hospital are eligible for financial support through the Young Patients Family Fund (YPFF).

I can advise Parliament that the UK Government has today published the Target Operating Model (TOM) for the UK which interacts with areas of devolved responsibility, this model is intended to set controls on imported goods entering the UK from the EU. It is a direct consequence of Brexit.

Over recent months the Scottish Government has worked constructively and collaboratively with the UK Government to help it meet its self-imposed deadlines, in light of our shared interest in, and responsibility for, biosecurity. In July, I signalled the Scottish Government’s agreement to the publication of the TOM as it stood at that time – despite our dissatisfaction with the process, reservations about some of the model and the fact that some key points would remain to be resolved after publication.

It was therefore hugely frustrating that the UK Government then unilaterally proposed changes to the model upon which we, and the Welsh Government, had agreed. I have been clear with UK Ministers that this approach is unacceptable.

Following a frustrating time revisiting negotiation, I have, once again, signalled to the UK Government that we are prepared to agree to the publication of the TOM. Given how imperative protecting Scotland’s consumers and businesses through robust biosecurity controls is, the UK Government’s unilateral decision to delay implementing the model is regrettable. However, I trust that publication of the model will give stakeholders both the ability to plan ahead and significant reassurance that we are acting to protect Scotland’s biosecurity.

The Scottish Government’s view remains that the best trading relationships for Scottish and UK businesses are to be found as members of the European Union. However, until Scotland is in a position to re-join the European Union and enjoy the security of its wider biosecurity controls, trade without controls on imported goods would create growing risks to biosecurity.

The Scottish Government still has a number of outstanding concerns around the model. My decision to adopt this latest version was subject to securing agreement from the UK Government that work will continue on resolving these concerns.

One such concern was around how the model interacts with the Windsor Framework. Over recent months, officials have spent a significant amount of time working through this. Stakeholders will see that the model sets out how different types of goods entering Great Britain via Ireland and Northern Ireland are to be treated. However, we will need to continue working with the UK and other Devolved Governments and other key stakeholders.

For some time now, since the UK’s exit from the EU, our Scottish exporting businesses have had to comply with strict requirements to export to the EU, while importing businesses face, and will continue to face, considerably fewer hurdles. This imbalance, alongside a disadvantageous position for Scottish businesses compared to the unique arrangements in place for Northern Ireland businesses, creates an unlevel playing field for Scottish exporters. I have pressed the UK Government to consider mechanisms to re-set this imbalance – in particular, pursuing a veterinary agreement with the EU, which would pragmatically align standards and smooth trade. It is disappointing that the UK Government continues to refuse to consider these sensible solutions.

I want to make it clear to Parliament that the Scottish Government acknowledges that there are nevertheless remaining biosecurity risks. Therefore, the Scottish Government’s agreement to the model has been contingent on UK Government commitments that these risks will be closely monitored and reviewed across all the four nations and backed by appropriate governance structures, data and intelligence sharing and technical expertise.

Similarly, as the model will need to be underpinned by legislation, our agreement to publish the TOM has only been enabled by the commitment from the UK Government that the devolution settlement will be respected.

We acknowledge that the model is imperfect and that there are considerable areas which require further work across the four nations. Given the imperative of offering clarity for businesses which have been waiting for the ‘rule book’ for some time, the Scottish Government accepts the need to adopt this model. Adoption of this model is critical if we are to protect Scotland’s people and businesses from biosecurity threats; protect the wellbeing of our people, our fauna, our flora and our natural environment; and protect the provenance of our produce. We will therefore focus attention and resources on its implementation.

We cannot risk further delay to the model. The implementation dates set out by the UK Government must be final. Should there be any suggestion of further delay, the Scottish Government will not hesitate to reconsider its position.

Further information on the model can be found on the UK Government’s website:

The Border Target Operating Model: August 2023 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

The Scottish Government fully recognise the seriousness of the ongoing cost of living crisis and, through the emergency Cost of Living (Tenant Protection) (Scotland) Act, are helping tenants, who we know are at risk of being financially vulnerable and less able to absorb the impacts of the current cost of living crisis. The emergency measures include a 3% cap on applicable in-tenancy rent increases and stronger protections against eviction.

Annex F of the Statement of Reasons for the 2nd proposed extension of the Act provides analysis of mortgage rate rises for private sector landlords in the context of this emergency legislation. While this does not correlate to increases in rents, it does reflect the potential increases in costs that some landlords may be facing which could influence how landlords with Buy to Let mortgages set rents.

The emergency Act is giving important support to tenants, providing them with much-needed stability in their housing costs. It has gone further than anywhere else in the UK in helping protect tenants across the rental sector.

While the focus of the emergency legislation is to protect tenants, the Scottish Government recognises that some landlords may also be facing pressures from this cost crisis. That is why the Scottish Government has built in a number of safeguards that allow for consideration of landlords’ circumstances. The measures will be kept under review and the Scottish Government will work with the private rented sector to understand the impact.

Forecasts for the Scottish economy are produced by the independent Scottish Fiscal Commission. They published their most recent forecast in May 2023.

The Scottish Government has not made any formal assessment of the impact of increased mortgage rates on the Scottish economy. However, the Scottish Government regularly monitors trends in mortgage rates and the level of mortgage lending through the quarterly Scottish Housing Market Review , and also monitors trends in economic activity, which is affected by mortgage and other interest rates, through the monthly Economic Brief .

The Scottish Government has recently conducted an evidence review on the impact of the wider cost of living crisis on low income households with children. A part of the report includes a section on housing which briefly summarises the impact of higher mortgage costs for families on low incomes.

There are currently no planned funding rounds for the Just Transition Fund in 2023-24.

In addition to the Fund’s £50 million multi-year capital programme announced for the region in 2022, we have allocated £25 million to the Scottish National Investment Bank for 2023-24, to be invested by the Bank, on a commercial basis and in line with its Investment Strategy and its missions including to support a just transition to net zero. For further details, businesses, projects and their representatives can contact the Bank via its website, where the Bank’s new enquiries team will handle the approach - Contact | Scottish National Investment Bank (thebank.scot)

I refer the member to the answer to question S6W-19512 on 17 July 2023. All answers to written parliamentary questions are available on the Parliament’s website, the search facility for which can be found at https://www.parliament.scot/chamber-and-committees/written-questions-and-answers

Official statistics on poverty rates in Scotland come from the Family Resources Survey. This is a sample survey which does not allow breakdowns at a sub-Scotland level.

However, the Department for Work and Pensions publish children in low income families local area statistics which are available at local authority level. These statistics are based on linked DWP/HMRC data on benefits and tax credits and are before housing costs. There are also estimates published by the End Child Poverty Coalition which model the impacts of housing costs on the child poverty rates produced by DWP. On both these measures for 2021-22, Aberdeen City is among the 10 local authorities with the lowest proportion of children in low income families.

There are a range of assessments made using various data sources to inform local and regional economic development and funding, as well as action to alleviate poverty. For instance, the Scottish Government established an independent Advisory Group on Economic Recovery in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The group’s report covered a wide range of indicators at local authority level including the business base, existing deprivation and income levels, digital connectivity and productivity.

Subsequently, the Scottish Government published the Wellbeing Economy Monitor which brings together a range of indicators to provide a baseline for assessing progress towards the development of a wellbeing economy in Scotland. A wellbeing economy toolkit has been developed to support decision making and prioritisation of economic interventions and facilitate the transition to local and regional wellbeing economies, including a local authority level wellbeing economy monitor. This includes child poverty estimates, along with other social, environmental and economic indicators.

The Scottish Government has not had discussions with the UK Government on this issue.

The Scottish Government is in discussion with the DWP about the proposed reforms set out in the Health and Disability White Paper published by the UK Government on 15 March, including to ensure that people in receipt of Scottish disability benefits are not disadvantaged in any way as a result of those reforms.

We are aware of concerns that have been raised about how the current operation of reserved benefits impacts upon learning disabled, autistic and neurodiverse people in Scotland going into training and employment and have set up the Scottish Access to Work Stakeholder Forum, led by the Glasgow Centre for Inclusive Living, to support discussion with DWP on these matters.