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The AHSP risk register identifies the potential impacts if there are insufficient skilled construction workers or problems with labour retention. Both factors could be affected by job losses in construction. Job losses in the construction sector are not necessarily, in themselves, a direct risk to delivery of the programme.

Bellway is currently involved in delivering two projects through the Affordable Housing Supply Programme and we do not anticipate any major impact to delivery of these projects or our wider programme.

The Scottish Government continually monitors its operations and delivery through the application of effective workforce controls at the organisational level. We prioritise our resources to support the elected government’s agenda, with workforce controls allowing flexibility to deploy resources as required. These controls are routinely monitored and adjusted to respond to the financial position and delivery requirements of the Scottish Government.

The number of directly employed staff with More Homes Division in each quarter since May 2021 is shown in in the following table, for both headcount and full time equivalent (FTE).

The affordable homes target was increased from 100,000 to 110,000 affordable homes following agreement by the Scottish Government and the Scottish Green Party in developing the Shared Policy Programme.

The mid-point target was not revised as we know that annual levels of delivery will vary and it takes time to grow additional capacity within the sector to deliver increased targets.

In the following table, the number of resignations and retirements within More Homes Division over the requested period is shown, subject to the following restrictions:

1. Where a value relates to fewer than 5 individuals, that value has been suppressed for confidentiality purposes, represented by [c].

2. Resignations only includes those who resigned from the Scottish Government and its agencies, not those who moved internally.

UK Finance data, which is only available for the UK as a whole, shows that at the end of Q2 2023 there were 8,980 first-charge buy-to-let loans which were in arrears of more than 2.5% of the outstanding balance, a 28% increase from the previous quarter and a 59% increase from the previous year.

Oversight and regulation of mortgage lenders is a reserved matter; as a result the Scottish Government has no powers or authority to intervene in the operation of the mortgage market.

Tenants living in a property where a lender is seeking repossession due to mortgage arrears are afforded the same rights as any other tenant facing eviction, as the lender is required to go through the same eviction process that applies to private landlords.

Safeguards have been built in to the emergency rent cap measures to balance the rights of landlords and tenants in the context of the costs crisis. Private landlords can apply to Rent Service Scotland to increase the rent for a let property above the rent cap (up to 6%) in connection with defined ‘prescribed property costs.’

The 81,900 first-charge homeowner mortgages in arrears of 2.5 per cent or more of the outstanding balance at the end of Q2 2023, as reported by UK Finance, represents an increase of 7% from the previous quarter, although it is 3% below the post-covid peak of 84,010 recorded in Q1 2021, and also 33% below the 122,610 recorded in Q2 2014, the earliest figure in this particular time series. UK Finance does not publish a breakdown for Scotland. We continually monitor UK Finance and Financial Conduct Authority data on arrears.

Oversight and regulation of mortgage lenders is a reserved matter, as a result the Scottish Government has no powers or authority to intervene in the operation of the mortgage market. We are doing all that we can with limited powers which is why, both last year and this, we have allocated almost £3 billion to support policies which tackle poverty and to protect people as far as possible during the ongoing cost of living crisis.

Our Cost of Living Support Scotland website provides information on the wide range of advice and support available, and we would also urge people concerned about their finances and mortgage payments to contact their lender as soon as possible.

The slowing of social rented approvals and starts has not been escalated. The AHSP risk register has not been changed on that basis.

Based on information supplied by delivery partners, the Scottish Government anticipates that the Affordable Housing Supply Programme will fully utilise the available 2023-24 budget of £752 million.