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Good morning. I have listened with interest to the evidence, and I have questions that cover some areas that have already been covered and some new areas. In the interests of time, perhaps the person who is best suited to answer the question could do so, which will allow me to get through more questions. That will be helpful.

My first question is a wider one about ADP in general and the role that it plays in the health of the nation. As we know, Scotland unfortunately has the lowest life expectancy, and the lowest healthy life expectancy, of all UK nations—it is some two years below the UK average. That has been the case for many years. In what way will ADP fix that?

Let us look at that, then. Before you answer, I am asking about this because it makes complete sense that if you give someone more money, their day-to-day living becomes easier because they have more money in the bank to spend on things such as bills or on food and all the other things that people need. However, I think that the link is unclear. If you create a specific benefit that is designed to help disabled people, in what way does that help the recipient? At the minute, as you say, you—rightly—are not asking what people do with that money; it simply lands in their bank account every month. How do you then do the difficult task of working out whether that big chunk of cash—and it is a huge chunk of money—is actually improving outcomes for people in the real world?

That is very helpful. Someone said earlier that there is a school of thought that if you spend more on social security and stop seeing it solely through the prism of its being a cost, there may be savings to be had down the line in other areas of public policy. That is an interesting philosophy and I hope that it is true. However, if it is true, we would also expect to see costs reduce in the primary care budget, for example, because people are getting healthier; we might also expect to see the system get more people back into work, tax intake go up and so on. However, we are not seeing those things. We are seeing a system in which the cost of delivering devolved social security is going up, the cost of delivering primary health care is going up and the cost of other social care policies is going up. They are all rising. I was under the impression that if we make difficult decisions to spend more on benefits compared with spend in other parts of the UK, we get better outcomes, but we are seeing neither better outcomes nor reduced costs in other areas of public policy.

That is all really helpful and a useful backdrop to what might happen if a college is in that situation. I guess I am looking at it from a more fundamental, bigger-picture point of view, in that not just Audit Scotland but other forecasters are looking at the finances of specific colleges. There is extreme concern that some of them will be financially unsustainable without either more drastic cuts to expenditure, which presumably means job losses, fewer students or courses cut, or financial intervention from the Government through liquidity from grants, loans or other mechanisms—in other words, an injection of cash just to balance the books year by year. That does not sound to me like a long-term sustainable plan for the college sector; it sounds as if, year on year, colleges are fighting to balance the books, and eight in 10 will not be able to do so.

According to some of the unions that we have received communications from, and Colleges Scotland itself, in one of the models that they have presented to us, there is a serious risk of closure of some colleges—a “Shut the doors; we are done” scenario. Is that a risk?

Thank you for that. You talked there about a 20 per cent real-terms reduction in funding over the past five years and the effect that that is having on what colleges do. You mentioned some statistics—30,000 fewer students and staff numbers down 8 per cent—as well as voluntary redundancies, which some warned could become compulsory redundancies, and the reduction of the physical estate. The phrase that struck me most was: “less teaching to fewer students”.

Fundamentally, how on earth can the college sector help the Scottish Government to meet its main objectives of governance, improving the economy, improving the health and wellbeing of society, getting people into the workplace and skilling up young people? How can the college sector do that while teaching fewer people fewer subjects? The two do not add up, in my view, and I get the impression from your briefing that you agree.

Okay, thank you for that.

Okay. Is there a risk, though, that you have created a benefit that simply can never be reduced or taken away because it is politically impossible to do so, as many Governments of many colours have learned over the years? There are difficult decisions to make to try to reduce the benefits bill, which in our case is growing year on year and is projected to rise probably for the next five to 10 years. No one can ever do anything about that, because once you have put that money in someone’s pocket, it is very difficult to take it away from them.

Indeed, off the back of the independent review of ADP, which suggests an expansion of the eligibility criteria, even more people will be coming into the system. We have created this huge beast that will just grow and grow. I am not saying that that is a bad thing, but it has to be paid for.

I will ask about that, as outcomes are important. I am really interested in the idea of long-term sustainability, which is valid and which the committee will look at for years to come, I suspect. However, if you are saying that ADP makes people’s lives better and healthier, in what way does it do that? I am looking for an evidence-based answer; we have to be driven by evidence.

Let us look at the reality of the college sector’s finances. You said that eight out of 10 colleges are forecast to report a deficit. When might that take place, and what happens when a college reports a deficit? How would they be able to sign off accounts and what governance issues would they face? If a business was in that position, it would be unsustainable—it would close down. Is there a risk that some colleges could close?

You made a number of recommendations. What is your principal or most important recommendation on how we get the sector back on its feet?

This is not a new problem. I sat on the Education and Skills Committee five years ago and the college sector then was crying out for cash and warning of job cuts, course cuts and fewer students, with the negative outcomes that that would have for society and the Scottish economy. Here we are today and I am afraid that the proof is in the pudding in your briefing today. Something has to give. Colleges Scotland calls it a “fork in the road”. Of the recommendations that you have made, what do you consider that the Scottish Government should focus on first?