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Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 5 May 2021
  6. Current session: 12 May 2021 to 2 April 2025
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Displaying 1492 contributions

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Public Audit Committee

Administration of Scottish Income Tax 2022-23

Meeting date: 22 February 2024

Jamie Greene

I will perhaps come on to that volatility. Your opening comments—repeated in the opening paragraphs of your report—gave quite a broad-brush overview in using phrases such as “continuing economic uncertainty”, “tax policy divergence”, “weaker economic performance”, and so on. Those are quite generic terms. What specific work has Audit Scotland done on the root causes of why that figure of £390 million was so vast?

Public Audit Committee

Administration of Scottish Income Tax 2022-23

Meeting date: 22 February 2024

Jamie Greene

I have been thrown in at the deep end. Thank you, convener, and good morning to our panel.

Before I move on to my line of questioning, I might just conclude the previous one. We have had a bit of discussion about the variance in outturns versus forecasts. That flags a concern to me with the 2022-23 estimation from HMRC of £14.9 billion and what variance we might see in that outturn. Surely there can only be one data set at the core of all this. No matter who you speak to—the Fiscal Commission, analysts, policy makers or HMRC—I presume that they are not using different data sources, so a robust set of data that can help to produce the forecasts must sit at their core. Given the huge variance in outturns this year, can we be confident that the data set and the analysis of it are sufficiently robust for policy makers and analysts to produce the forecasts that affect decisions about tax rates, for example?

Public Audit Committee

Administration of Scottish Income Tax 2022-23

Meeting date: 22 February 2024

Jamie Greene

Specifically and in comparison, is it possible to quantify that underperformance in numerical terms?

Public Audit Committee

Administration of Scottish Income Tax 2022-23

Meeting date: 22 February 2024

Jamie Greene

I suspect that one of the biggest areas of interest, and perhaps concern, on the part not just of the committee but of the Government relates to the effect of tax divergence—Scotland having differential rates compared with the rest of the UK.

You state that, broadly, historically speaking, there has been little divergence, but that it has increased for this tax year and that it might increase in future tax years. The known unknown is what effect that will have on people’s behaviour and how it will affect the tax base and the resulting tax take.

What work has Audit Scotland or the NAO done on understanding how any such behavioural impact will affect the final outturn numbers? What are the risks? How high or low are they?

Public Audit Committee

Administration of Scottish Income Tax 2022-23

Meeting date: 22 February 2024

Jamie Greene

We know what some of the risks are, as they are well documented and are talked about often. However, quantifying those risks will be difficult until we see what people start doing with their money. Let us take, for example, the scenario of a person who earns £50,000. Such a person would pay 20 per cent more tax in Scotland than they would do elsewhere in the UK, which is a substantial difference. The number of people who are affected in that way must be easy to find out, but it might be more difficult to forecast what they might do. I guess that that is part of the problem. One presumes that, if there is a huge shift in behaviour, that will affect future budgets and how much money is available to the Government. Is that fair to say? Is that a risk in how we forecast budgets?

Criminal Justice Committee

Responses to Police Officer and Staff Suicides

Meeting date: 28 June 2023

Jamie Greene

We do not want to do that, of course.

Criminal Justice Committee

Responses to Police Officer and Staff Suicides

Meeting date: 28 June 2023

Jamie Greene

Absolutely. That is entirely their prerogative.

I have some specific recommendations that may make things easier in the future. There are two things that I believe do not happen at the moment when someone is identified as suffering from mental ill-health and is signed off sick. The first is that that information is not shared with the SPF. I presume that that is for data protection reasons, but I wonder whether it is an issue. I may ask David Threadgold to chip in. Sharing that information might lead to that individual seeking some counsel outside the employee assistance programme, about which we have heard a lot of criticism. I also wonder whether there is any merit in introducing, or reintroducing, having full-time welfare officers within the force.

Criminal Justice Committee

Responses to Police Officer and Staff Suicides

Meeting date: 28 June 2023

Jamie Greene

That is helpful.

Criminal Justice Committee

Responses to Police Officer and Staff Suicides

Meeting date: 28 June 2023

Jamie Greene

It was about welfare officers.

Criminal Justice Committee

Responses to Police Officer and Staff Suicides

Meeting date: 28 June 2023

Jamie Greene

Are you saying that, when someone has been signed off or relieved of their duties, for whatever reason, they would be signposted to a number of places where they might seek help, and that your organisation would be one of those, but there are others?