Skip to main content

Language: English / Gàidhlig

Loading…

Seòmar agus comataidhean

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

Criathragan Hide all filters

Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 5 May 2021
  6. Current session: 12 May 2021 to 4 April 2025
Select which types of business to include


Select level of detail in results

Displaying 749 contributions

|

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Daniel Johnson

A challenge, then.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 7 December 2021

Daniel Johnson

I have a final question, following on from our discussion about labour markets, but taking a longer view.

The last two years have been a brutal shock, exposing our reliance on imported labour to make up gaps and, indeed, do certain tasks that the UK population does not want to do—essentially, low-wage, low-skill jobs.

In the longer run, global population growth, which was around 2 per cent in the 1970s and has fallen to about 1 per cent now, is projected to fall further to about 0.5 per cent in the middle of this century and come to some sort of equilibrium by the end of the century. It strikes me that any sort of model that relies on us continuing to import labour is flawed, regardless of the other things that have happened. Do you share that assumption? If so, does there need to be more focus on increasing the productive capacity of the existing population, because the economy will require working-age people to be more productive, whether by means of skills or automation? Does public policy need to be more focused on that issue?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 7 December 2021

Daniel Johnson

What is the view of the IFS of the comprehensive spending review in relation to Scotland? My understanding is that we will see a 7.7 per cent increase in real terms, but that is front-loaded in the first year, and there are actually small real-terms decreases. That increase of 7.7 per cent is a historically high increase in the block grant. However, I think that that profile leads to some challenges in terms of what it means over those three years. Is that a fair characterisation? Does the IFS have any insights in terms of the decisions that the Scottish Government must make?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 7 December 2021

Daniel Johnson

Let us bear those points in mind, with what Sir Charlie Bean said earlier, and step back a little bit. We are in a situation that is not panning out as predicted. We see significant labour market frictions and significant differential frictions between different sectors in the economy. It strikes me that, in that situation, making predictions on future earnings becomes a lot more difficult, because you need to forecast almost on a microeconomic rather than a macroeconomic basis what will happen in each individual sector. Is that a fair summary? What is the OBR doing to look at how we can drill into specific issues in specific sectors and extrapolate for the wider economic outlook?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 7 December 2021

Daniel Johnson

If I remember the election period correctly, the IFS was very fair in that it was equally withering about all the manifestos, which was good of you.

In the previous evidence session, we were looking specifically at the nature of the rise in income tax receipts, noting that Scotland was not seeing such big increases and that we were seeing big differentials between sectors, which brings challenges. Is there sufficient public policy focus on how we plug gaps in particular labour markets or address those differentials? That seems to be a new challenge, and one that is more challenging because of Brexit, but it does not seem to be getting the focus in terms of public policy that it deserves, north or south of the border.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 7 December 2021

Daniel Johnson

If you had both come up with exactly the same answer we would be asking much tougher questions.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 7 December 2021

Daniel Johnson

I will follow on from the convener’s line of questioning on income tax forecasts.

It is of critical importance that since the introduction of the fiscal framework, income tax is a large component of what we have available to spend in Scotland. I am interested to understand why the OBR projects growth in income tax receipts being slower in Scotland than in the rest of the UK. If that is the case, mitigating that should be a real focus of public policy in Scotland. Can you explain the underlying assumptions behind that forecast?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 7 December 2021

Daniel Johnson

Bearing in mind what Mr Hughes said regarding the attempts of the OBR and the SFC to reconcile their methodologies, I note from your paper that it looks as though there will be a £380 million difference between what you and the SFC forecast for income tax receipts. Will you provide a summary of that difference of opinion? I assume that the SFC is looking at the same demographic figures.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 7 December 2021

Daniel Johnson

In the interests of time, I will hand over the questioning, but I hope that one of my colleagues will pick up on that interesting insight.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Public Service Reform and Christie Commission

Meeting date: 30 November 2021

Daniel Johnson

I know that the convener wants to come in, but I have one more question.