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Thank you—I almost completely agree with everything that you have just set out. We need growth because, ultimately, that should lead to greater fairness and prosperity for people. My only concern is that you and I might agree more than you agree with some of your new ministers. However, I will leave that there.

I have a final point. Earlier this morning, we were discussing the Scottish Fiscal Commission’s forecast. On one hand, the forecast is very encouraging, because it looks like we will return to pre-Covid levels by quarter 2 of 2022, which is a good deal earlier than we expected. However, our discussion with the commission’s representatives raised a number of risks. Indeed, one of the things that they said was that the forecast assumes that the current relative absence of restrictions is maintained. Given the events of recent weeks, we are all concerned about the levels of infections. Understandably, there has been talk of circuit breakers and the possibility, at the very least, of restrictions being reimposed. Within the Scottish Government, what work is being done to look at the impact of those measures and how they would impact on spending in the current year? Can you outline the fiscal consequences of a circuit breaker or any other interventions that might be required if the situation does not improve?

To take the next step, I absolutely understand those points, but the key conclusion that is drawn in the paper is that growth has been slower in Scotland than in the rest of the UK. Do you share that conclusion? Do you have insight into that?

Following on from some of the topics that have already been touched on, I have a question that is by and large about some of the short-term elements that we been discussing and some of the longer-term ones that you have just touched on with Liz Smith.

In the shorter term, your forecast has us returning to pre-Covid levels in quarter 2. Given what you have just set out, how safe is that forecast? Furlough is coming to an end and we can see from what has been happening over recent months the phenomenon of unexpected savers who are spending money on things that they would not otherwise have bought. I saw a report yesterday showing that used car prices are up by 15 per cent and you just highlighted spending on home improvements. It strikes me that those spending patterns cannot be sustained into the medium or long term. If that is true, is it safe to straight-line our economic performance from quarter 2 of this year? That is what your forecast appears to do, on the basis of your report. Should we not at least have a sense, if not an expectation, that there is a risk of more of an oscillation in our recovery or that there may be some head winds resulting from some of those effects?

I will ask a final question about the longer-term impact. I accept that it is difficult to predict right now what the long-term structural changes in the economy will be, but I agree that there will be some. Are some of those, even if we are not able to safely predict them, a good bet? It is very likely that there will be structural changes in relation to the consumer-facing economy, especially retail, and I declare an interest as a former retailer. Those patterns of spending have permanently changed—I do not think that anybody in the retail industry thinks otherwise.

To what degree are you starting to consider or identify those changes so that you can embed them in your forecasting as soon as possible and anticipate them? Some of those changes are very likely. Likewise, in relation to changing patterns of work, having a screen and being able to work over Zoom is all well and good if your work involves things for which that is suitable, but if you are a retail worker or a delivery driver, it is somewhat more difficult to do those things by Zoom. Not only sectorally but in terms of types of employment, the recovery might well look very different depending on where you are and what industry you work in. Are you starting to identify that and embed it in your forecasting?

I am a director of, and sole shareholder in, a company that has retail interests. I am a member of the Union of Shop, Distributive and Allied Workers and of the Community trade union, and I am the vice chair of the ADHD Foundation charity.