Seòmar agus comataidhean

Thanks very much, Douglas. I believe that Alasdair Allan has a question.

I think that we all prefer carrots to sticks.

That would be great.

I have a second question. You said that the Scottish Government would seek full devolution of income tax, VAT and national insurance contributions. Are you talking about full devolution of not just the setting but the collecting of those taxes? Would you limit the approach to those taxes—the top three taxes in the United Kingdom, in terms of receipts—or would you go further down the list? The next tax on the list is corporation tax. Are there other levies that you would seek to devolve?

When we consider the total tax revenue that is levied, I estimate that you are seeking the devolution to Scotland of around 70 per cent of taxation, if we include the three taxes that you want to be devolved with the taxes that are already devolved. Is that roughly what you estimate?

But that is my point. The growth of the average receipt per capita determines significantly what we have to spend. I would need to double check but, from memory, it is about 20 to 25 per cent of the revenue that we have to spend in Scotland. In terms of the overall tax policy that the Scottish Government controls, you correctly say that there are a number of taxes and this is about all tax, but the lion’s share of that is income tax. It dwarves all the other taxes that we have at our control.

Given that that is such a fundamental dynamic, which is so important for determining whether we have more money to spend compared to pre-devolution or less, I wonder why that is not explicitly stated. You said that the fiscal framework is complex; I do not really understand why it is not baked into the tax framework.

That is sort of my point.

I want to go back to a specific point that the convener raised about non-domestic rates. You are saying that the framework should be responsive to societal shifts. Surely, everything that is going on—including the fact that, depending on the point in time that you pick, online sales now account for between a quarter and 30 per cent of total retail sales—would suggest that you need a fundamental review of non-domestic rates, especially if you are using the framework properly.

I will think about whether it is helpful.

Let me move on a little. You just mentioned evaluation, which is really important, but there is not a single reference to how that evaluation will take place, certainly not in terms of measurement. I wonder why the document does not include a broad approach to what measures would be taken into consideration to assess the various elements of the framework.

You have four objectives: stable revenues, a wellbeing economy, national outcomes and responsiveness to societal shifts. If you have objectives, surely you should have a way of measuring them.

I have two supplementary questions, the first of which follows straight on from that discussion.

The question is broader than that of North Sea oil and the transition to green jobs. A number of the answers begged further questions around what forecasting the Scottish Government undertakes.

We know that the Scottish Government is about to publish a multiyear spending review. I presume that forecasting will form part of that, so that the Scottish Government can have some view of what revenues will be generated over the period. Is the Scottish Government relying just on the Scottish Fiscal Commission forecast? If so, is it doing further interrogation? Is it undertaking its own forecasting?

The point is important; it is about what forecasts are used and where they are generated. Will you clarify what the Scottish Government is doing?

No, you have not. In your preamble, you said that it is about the how, but this is about the what. If it is just the SFC forecast, with any data set, it is not just about the numbers themselves but what they do in terms of your process.

Maybe you could write to the committee to clarify where in the process forecasting fits, what forecasting takes place and how you use the SFC data. That would be helpful.

It is not necessarily about additional forecasting; it is about what forecasting and data sets you are using. Do you use just what the SFC provides or does additional forecasting take place? On what basis is it broken down? It is not just about oil and gas; are there sectoral or regional forecasts?

Ultimately, you must think that the Scottish Government has some influence on tax receipts, so it is about how that is modelled, forecast and baked into your decision making. An understanding about how that takes place formally in the Government decision making process is pretty important.