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As inflation has been mentioned a few times already, I do not want to spend a lot of time on it. However, as I understand it, you follow the Bank of England instead of the OBR on this matter, mainly because its forecasts are more recent. If inflation is at 4 per cent just now, how confident are we that it will fall to 2.5 per cent? If pressures such as shortage of labour were to continue in the longer term, would inflation continue to be higher in the longer term, too? Being of a slightly older generation, I remember inflation at 15 per cent, so 4 per cent seems reasonably low to me, but compared with recent years it is relatively high. Do you have any thoughts on that?

On the wider question of population, our birth rate in recent years has been low. On the whole, immigration has made up for that, but there has been a bit of a reduction in that, too. What are your assumptions on population? How big an impact will the issue have, and should we be worried about it? My simple thinking is that if the population grows, the economy will probably grow, too, but if the population falls, it becomes very difficult to make the economy grow. Moreover, if the population of the rest of the UK grows while ours does not, where do we go?

What is the impact on people’s behaviour? If there is more uncertainty, do people save more?

We will keep an eye on that.

I appreciate that. It is an important issue. I lived through a time of higher inflation some years ago, and it concerns me very much.

The SFC was also more positive about the long-term scarring effect of Covid. It had thought that the effect would be greater—it thought that the figure would be about 3 per cent of the economy, but it now says that it will be 2 per cent. Do you recognise and agree with those figures?

The SFC also made the point about different sectors recovering in different ways.

The SFC was slightly more negative about non-domestic rates. Its forecasts are lower than they were in January, showing that revenue from non-domestic rates will be £27 million lower this year, and £34 million then £48 million lower going forward. Is that inevitable? Is that just a result of Covid?

Finally, I want to touch on social security spending. The SFC has forecast that the adult disability payment, which is replacing PIP, is likely to cost some £500 million more. It is warning that, if we put more money into social security, it will need to be balanced out somewhere else in the budget? Is the SFC being overly pessimistic? Do you have the figures in your budgets?

I am totally in favour of having a more generous social security system than that in the UK, but it will come at a cost. No matter whether we are independent, it will, to some extent, be demand led. Is it right to say, therefore, that it will be something that will always have to be managed?

Presumably, the birth rate will not change very rapidly, but things could change on the immigration side. There is demand from industry for immigration to be allowed for specific sectors, although the UK Government has said that it will not do that. How important would that be? If immigration were suddenly to be allowed, would that make a big difference to the forecasts?

I was interested that page 33 of my copy of your report—I am not sure whether it is the same page 33 for everyone—shows box 3.1, on uncertainty indicators, which I understand are a new measure that you are trying. I was fascinated by that and I wonder whether somebody will explain what that tells us.