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Presumably, the birth rate will not change very rapidly, but things could change on the immigration side. There is demand from industry for immigration to be allowed for specific sectors, although the UK Government has said that it will not do that. How important would that be? If immigration were suddenly to be allowed, would that make a big difference to the forecasts?

I was interested that page 33 of my copy of your report—I am not sure whether it is the same page 33 for everyone—shows box 3.1, on uncertainty indicators, which I understand are a new measure that you are trying. I was fascinated by that and I wonder whether somebody will explain what that tells us.

I will ask about an area that has come up before. Are you getting the data that you need, with the quality that you need, from Scottish sources and the UK HM Revenue and Customs?

One of the subjects that we talked about quite a lot with the Scottish Fiscal Commission was inflation. The commission now seems to be following the more recent Bank of England projection of 2.5 per cent, falling from the present 4 per cent. The commission seemed reasonably relaxed about inflation, in that, if we had to pay out more, we would get more in by way of tax and so on. Are you relaxed about inflation, and is it a concern for you and for the budgets?

I echo what Murdo Fraser said about other committees. I am a little unclear about where our remit ends and those of other committees start. I am also a member of the Finance and Public Administration Committee, which will look at the budget impact of Covid; I assume that the Economy and Fair Work Committee and the Health, Social Care and Sport Committee will also look at Covid.

I assume that we will look at all the stuff—such as the vaccination programme and new variants—that the previous COVID-19 Committee covered. We hope that nothing will happen in July or August but, if a new variant appeared or the vaccination programme was delayed, could our committee meet in the recess if it needed to because of exceptional circumstances? I would be happy for the convener and the deputy convener to decide on that. That is my only question.

I very much support the holding of a planning or business day, for which I hope that we could meet in person. That would help the committee and allow us to throw ideas around and do brainstorming. It would be good to do that at the end of August.

I congratulate Siobhian Brown on being elected as the convener of the COVID-19 Recovery Committee, and I hand over to her for the rest of the meeting.

Good morning, and welcome to the first meeting of the COVID-19 Recovery Committee in the sixth session of the Scottish Parliament. I am convening the committee for the first two items because, as it turns out, I am the oldest member of the committee. I have to say that it was something of a shock to learn that, but there we are.

I welcome all members to the committee, and I look forward to working with you. For the benefit of new members, I find that committee work, including working with colleagues across the parties, our clerks and the advisers and experts who meet us, is among the most fulfilling things that I do in Parliament. I am looking forward to being part of the committee and to the months ahead.

I remind everyone to switch off their mobile phones, or at least to switch them to silent. We have no apologies from members; all six are present.

We will move on to declarations of interests.

I have no relevant interests to declare.

I will now go to each member in alphabetical order and ask them to make a declaration. I remind members that they do not need to touch their microphones—the sound will be handled by broadcasting. I will go to Siobhian Brown first.

Thank you, everyone.

The second item on our agenda is to choose the convener of the committee. The procedure is explained in the papers that have been circulated.

Further to motion S6M-00393, the Parliament has agreed that only members of the Scottish National Party are eligible for nomination as convener of the committee. The nomination of a candidate for the post does not require a seconder to support the nomination. I invite a member of the SNP to nominate a candidate for the post of convener.

The committee’s next task is to choose the convener. The procedure has been explained.

The Parliament has agreed that only members of the Scottish National Party are eligible for nomination as convener of the committee. I ask any member of the Scottish National Party to make a nomination.