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Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 4 May 2021
  6. Current session: 13 May 2021 to 16 December 2025
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Displaying 3349 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 6 June 2023

John Mason

Thank you very much, Professor Roy. I think that we all have a number of questions. Committee members have around 13 minutes each.

You mentioned the fact that your forecasts and the OBR’s forecasts are somewhat different. You also said that there is more uncertainty than usual at this particular time. Why is there more uncertainty at this time, and why is there a difference on the divergence in earnings growth, in particular, between the Scottish Fiscal Commission and the OBR?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 6 June 2023

John Mason

Traditionally, we have found it hard to match the south-east of England and London, and their earnings have tended to be higher. Therefore, it is surprising to me that we have things the other way round, in a sense, this time.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 6 June 2023

John Mason

Okay. Thank you.

The big figure that was mentioned is the negative income tax reconciliation of around £712 million. Obviously, that has been in the media. How certain are we about that? I seem to remember that, in the past, the forecasts and the actual outturns were quite different from each other, even late on. We will just have to wait until July, I think, when we get the final figures, but is there a possibility that the figure could be very different from £712 million?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 6 June 2023

John Mason

I congratulate the committee and the witnesses for keeping us to time—we have done quite well. Is there anything else that the witnesses wanted to touch on?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 6 June 2023

John Mason

Good morning, and welcome to the 17th meeting in 2023 of the Finance and Public Administration Committee. Under agenda item 1, we will take evidence from the Scottish Fiscal Commission on its economic and fiscal forecasts from May 2023 and the medium-term financial strategy. I welcome to the meeting Professor Graeme Roy, the commission’s chair; Professor Francis Breedon, a commissioner; and John Ireland, the commission’s chief executive.

Before we move to questions, I invite Professor Roy to make an opening statement.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 6 June 2023

John Mason

Mr Ireland, if you want to come in at any point, just jump in—that will be fine.

In December, the Fiscal Commission forecast that tax receipts would be £384 million less than you are now forecasting. Can you explain why that has changed so much since December?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 6 June 2023

John Mason

Yes.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 6 June 2023

John Mason

So, in some ways, that was a one-off because of Covid and turbulence.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 6 June 2023

John Mason

Thank you all for taking part and for your clear answers.

We will have a break and start again at 11 o’clock.

10:53 Meeting suspended.  

11:00 On resuming—  

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Public Service Reform Programme

Meeting date: 6 June 2023

John Mason

Welcome back to the second half of our meeting this morning. We now continue our evidence taking on the Scottish Government’s public service reform programme. Today, we will hear from Claire Burden, the chief executive of NHS Ayrshire and Arran, whom I welcome to the committee. We were meant to also be hearing from a representative of the Argyll and Bute integration joint board, but they are unable to attend today. I apologise that you are in the spotlight, Claire, but I am sure that we will get on okay.

We have about an hour, but we do not have to use all that time—we will see how we get on.

We are looking at public service reform. Initially, we thought that the Government was going to have a very clear path for that; more recently, it has been more the case that each organisation will be looking at reform itself. Do you think that that works, or do we need a stronger steer from the Government about the kind of reform that it is looking for and where we should be going? Are you comfortable that your organisation and similar organisations can drive forward reform yourselves?