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Does Darren Kelly have an opinion on that modelling?

Thank you for that. We are in new territory, given the levels of social security benefits that the Scottish Government will be delivering and how much of the Scottish budget that will take up. You mentioned the reserves. Has underspend also been factored in, with additional money being available in-year via the Scottish Government for some of the funding?

Thank you. That was helpful.

Thank you—that was helpful.

My other question is on the Scottish Government’s spending review. Do you have any more clarity on the potential funding gap? I think that we are all looking at a predicted cut of around 7 per cent in local government funding. Is that where the funding is likely to be found?

Having produced these reports for a number of years now, you will have been seeing this happening; you must also have seen how, every year, local government and other budgets have been facing the same kinds of cuts. From your experience of other committees to which you have given evidence, do you think that more can be found in these budgets to meet that shortfall?

That is helpful. That is maybe another area of uncertainty.

Good morning, panel, and thank you for joining us.

I want to follow the previous line of questioning by asking about the uncertainty around the some of the new benefits that have been launched. I am thinking, for example, of the forecasts outlined in December with regard to disability benefits. Do you have any more clarity on cost predictions since they have been launched?

What is the limit to the Scotland reserve? Did you say £25 million?

Luckily mine is working. Good morning, minister, and good morning to the others on the panel. I want to follow on from Pam Duncan-Glancy’s line of questioning. What work has the Scottish Government undertaken to predict the number of people who may see their award ended or reduced, and has that modelling been undertaken?

I take from your answer that that is where you think this might go: a third, a third and a third.