Seòmar agus comataidhean

I have a quick question before I come back to Monica. Are the two figures that we have—the 3,000 hectares for management plans and the 1,000 hectares for lotting—those that were discussed in the lead-up to the bill, or did they just appear in the bill as introduced? Are they a surprise to you, or are they what you have been discussing with the Government? I do not know who wants to go with that. Gemma, you looked up.

Sarah-Jane, are you going to be the odd one out, or do you agree?

We will now pause until 11:12, which will allow members to have six minutes to stretch their legs.

I accept that, but the fact is that mortality has gradually increased, and 2023 was perhaps a bad year. This year might be slightly better, as it has been somewhat cooler, but nevertheless the rate has increased. The other day, Ben Hadfield gave evidence to this committee, and he said that he was confident enough to predict a 2 per cent drop in mortality every year. That is the figure that Mowi is looking at, and it means that it will take us about five years to get back to the 2018 figures. If we want to get back to the 2009 figures, we are looking at a lot longer than that. Does the industry have to speed up reducing mortality, or can the situation be allowed to continue as it is?

As a farmer, I understand that mortality happens when you are farming animals. However, if mortality on a land-based farm more than doubled because of the way that the industry was operating, the farmer would not be able to get away with it. Recommendation 9 of the Rural Economy and Connectivity Committee’s report, which I remember discussing at some length, says that

“no expansion should be permitted at sites which report high or significantly increased levels of mortalities, until these are addressed”.

That was a key recommendation, which prevented the committee supporting calls for a moratorium, as referred to in recommendation 3. Have the requirements of recommendation 9 been met?

So, what was the figure, if it was not 7 per cent. Was it 12 per cent?

I kind of hear what you are saying, but we know that, in 2012, mortality was 12,000 tonnes and, in 2023, it was 33,000 tonnes. I understand that there has been an increase in production, but that is more than double.

Thank you, convener. I would like to push that just a wee bit, because the evidence to the 2018 committee was based on figures from 2009 onwards. It would be helpful to extend the information that you have asked for to cover that, which I am sure is within the cabinet secretary’s remit.

I will move on to my final question. Based on everything that we have heard today, very few of the 65 recommendations in the REC Committee report have transpired into anything, and the industry has pushed on. If we reran recommendation 3 in the report and put the issue to the committee now, would you be surprised if it took a different view?

I remind committee members, and those watching the meeting, that I declare in my entry in the register of members’ interests that I am part of a partnership in a wild salmon fishery on the River Spey. I have been involved in salmon management for more than 40 years. I will probably leave it at that.

I am sorry that, when a member goes at the end, they sometimes have to go back to areas that have been covered. I am sure that you will understand that, cabinet secretary.

I want to recap. I am delighted that you have said in your evidence that a key problem for the industry is how to deal with global warming. The REC Committee report, which was written in 2018, was based on the evidence that we had then. I would like to remind you of the evidence that Ben Hadfield gave on 2 May 2018, which I will quote. He said:

“a 7 per cent mortality rate in the seawater phase would be top of the pile, and that is where Scotland was from 2009 to 2011. Since then, we have had ... a ‘perfect storm’”,

as he called it in a letter to the committee.

“We had El Niño conditions, which raised the Atlantic’s temperature and meant ... warmer seas and coastal areas.”—[Official Report, Rural Economy and Connectivity Committee, 2 May 2018; c 34.]

At that stage, when he was writing to the committee, mortality had just drifted above 15 per cent. He did go on to say that it would decrease and that things would get better. That was the basis on which the report was written in 2018.

In 2023, however, we find mortality at 25 per cent, with 33,000 tonnes of salmon being disposed of, compared with the 17,000 tonnes that were being disposed of in 2018. If the committee had seen that or had known that those figures were coming, do you think that it would have written its report slightly differently?