The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.
All Official Reports of meetings in the Debating Chamber of the Scottish Parliament.
All Official Reports of public meetings of committees.
Displaying 1485 contributions
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 14 November 2023
Liz Smith
When you say that it has got a lot worse, is it that the trends of that forecasting have got worse, or is there just extra volatility in the earnings that is very difficult to predict? I am asking whether there is a problem with the statistics that we are using and, therefore, a difficulty for the OBR and the SFC in interpreting that data or whether something else is causing a problem.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 14 November 2023
Liz Smith
Thank you. That is very helpful.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 14 November 2023
Liz Smith
That is very helpful. I think that the committee would agree with the statement that forecasting is an inexact science. Obviously, we have to accept that. However, is there anything that we can do through budget analysis and fiscal framework analysis to ensure that the forecasting error is minimal?
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 14 November 2023
Liz Smith
The Financial Times contained an interesting article about this a couple of weeks ago. The presentation of the data is making life very hard for the OBR and the SFC. That matters to us big time because the data is absolutely crucial not only for informing us what the current economic picture is but for informing the Government when it sets policy. Can we do anything else to help to reduce the forecasting error, which obviously has created difficulties between the OBR and the SFC, certainly over the past few years?
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 14 November 2023
Liz Smith
That hits the nail on the head. In Scotland, forecasting is a difficult job because the SFC is having to deal with two forecasts rather than just one.
If we accept that there will be a degree of forecast error, we have to play that into the system. Do you know whether, when the OBR and the SFC are looking back at the predictions that they made and how things turned out in practice, there is a lot of co-operation between the two in order to assess where some of the forecast error came in? In your opinion, is that well documented?
10:45Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 7 November 2023
Liz Smith
Yes.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 7 November 2023
Liz Smith
Minister, you rightly mentioned in your opening statement how the uplift in the teachers’ pay settlement is a very important and understandable commitment in the financial landscape that you have to deal with. For clarification, do the figures in the table in section A.2.1 in the guide to the autumn budget revision—the section entitled “Gross Funding Changes”—relate to the 2022-23 budget commitments?
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 7 November 2023
Liz Smith
Yes, indeed. Overall, we welcome that commitment, but you are right that it has led to some very difficult decisions, with the potential for more difficult decisions coming down the line on commitments in future budgets. Obviously, this is a very large part of the budgetary negotiations. Do you feel that that pressure will be there for the foreseeable future?
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 7 November 2023
Liz Smith
Are you in a position to tell us about that reprofiling?
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 7 November 2023
Liz Smith
Sorry, do they not understand that this is a framework bill?