Seòmar agus comataidhean

Thank you for that—

I asked the question largely because one of the difficulties that has been flagged up, in this meeting as well as previously, is that we have an ageing population, so the working population—which obviously pays the tax—is shrinking as a proportion of the overall population.

That cannot be changed overnight, which leads to the question of whether there are other policies that we can put in place to try to compensate for what is predicted. Both of you, as well as the witnesses from the Fiscal Commission, have said that the outlook is not great. Which policies will give us the best chance of addressing our difficulties and potential deficits? That is the main question. I will ask the cabinet secretary that question, too, but I am interested in what you think the evidence shows.

Professor Roy, you made some extremely interesting points about productivity and said that Scotland does very well in some cases and not very well in others. How does that relate to our concerns about employment trends in the Scottish economy? Do we have to use employment policies more to try to get us around some of the difficult structural issues?

Thank you.

Notwithstanding what you said about the big factors, is it not the case that those effects have considerable implications for the amount of tax take that comes to Scotland and that, therefore, when a Government decides on its tax policy, the projections that you are giving about revenues in relation to the factors that you just mentioned are extremely important?

I will follow on from that point. If we assume that the main challenge is to address the problem of proportionately declining tax revenues, am I right in thinking that you both suggest that the policies that are required to deal with that challenge are not only fairly straightforward fiscal policies, such as increasing tax or changing thresholds, but policies that will address some of the structural problems in the Scottish economy?

Would it be fair to say that, given the transition to net zero and the prediction that the oil and gas industries will diminish further, the result will be on-going issues for the tax take. Is that your prediction?

As you say, it is maybe an issue for the cabinet secretary in due course.

I will ask about what you said regarding the oil and gas situation. You said that it was one of the big factors affecting matters. To what extent to do you think that the decline in the oil and gas sector is having one of the biggest effects on reducing the tax take?

How easy is it to understand whether the labour market problems have been caused by Brexit or by people not being willing—rather than not having the right skills—to take up the available jobs? How easy is it to drill down on that?

Professor Bean made some interesting comments in reference to the impending meeting with the MPC and what is focusing minds on inflation and, specifically, its causes. How easy is it to use economic data to home in on the cost-push factors in inflation and on demand-led inflation? In previous meetings on the economy, people have spoken to us about cost-push inflation being very strong.