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Are you pointing to a quantitative lack in the data, or is there something qualitative that we need to do?

Is more of that static analysis on-going now than it was before?

Our witnesses last week said pretty much the same thing on that.

Do you think that co-operation between the DWP and Social Security Scotland is improving?

That is encouraging to hear. If we are to be successful in targeting those who are most in need and to have effective measurement of which policies work better than others, it is absolutely critical that we have the right data in place. Exactly that point was flagged up in last week’s evidence session with local authority representatives. You are right that local authorities are finding it much easier to work with the 2017 act, because it forces them to think about exactly what they are measuring and how effective they are at doing that.

However, there is a bigger picture in relation to the estimates that have come from the Scottish Fiscal Commission, which we all know about, and are only too real. If we are going to use social security to provide the best possible benefits to everyone in Scotland, we have to target those who are most in need and ensure that we have the right data to allow us to do that. That brings in difficult arguments about which payments can and cannot be universal. However, the committee is interested in how effective the policy making is, which is why I was interested in the comments that you made in your report about that data.

Hannah Randolph, you made an interesting comment about modelling. Will you expand a bit on that?

That is helpful. Professor Sinclair or Mr Dickie, do you have any comments on improving data?

Behavioural change, which was mentioned earlier, is a key element in deciding on policy. I know that you cannot comment at all on the policy debate but, when you examine tax, do you feel that we are getting better able to understand behavioural change?

I think that most businesses would agree that the question is difficult. There is no trustworthy evidence that people are moving away. Where there is maybe a little extra evidence is in relation to some businesses in Scotland finding it more difficult to attract people to come here—that is, recruitment is becoming increasingly difficult.

As a committee, we are interested in behavioural change that can impact on people’s decisions about how they spend their money. We are also interested in the labour market issues that we have. We have been talking a lot about economic inactivity and whether tax has an effect on it. To make a good judgment on that, it is essential that we have as much data as we possibly can. That always underlies this committee’s work, so thank you very much for your reflections on that.

Are you saying that it is a little easier to estimate what the behavioural change might be for some taxes? Economists often tell us that it is incredibly difficult to measure behavioural change—I understand why—but are there taxes where it is a little bit easier to measure that?

You were hinting earlier that changes in the marginal propensity to save and consume might result from that.

In the work that you undertake with HMRC and the Scottish Fiscal Commission, do you notice any different behavioural patterns across different parts of the UK in relation to specific taxes, such as income tax?