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It is a very complex area—I fully understand that. You are quite right about the time differences. Some policies take much longer.

Some witnesses have flagged up that there are still gaps in the data that is required to successfully undertake that work. Do you agree with that? Are there gaps in the data that you would like the Scottish Government to fill so that you are able to measure more effectively what is and is not successful? If there are gaps, could you indicate to the committee what they are?

In the previous two sessions, the committee received pretty convincing evidence of how successful the Scottish child payment has been. Witnesses provided sufficient qualitative and quantitative evidence as to why that is the case, notwithstanding some of the issues that Mr Doris raised about a few people missing out on uptake.

Cabinet secretary, I am interested in what criteria you are using to establish that a policy has been successful when you come to measure its effectiveness and the modelling that you have undertaken. This morning, you indicated in your opening remarks that you feel that there are lessons to be learned from how successful the Scottish child payment has been. What are those lessons, and what criteria are you using to try to establish which other aspects—whether they are to do with housing, closing the attainment gap in schools or free school meals—can be used to measure the effectiveness of policy making?

I want to relate my question to child poverty. As you rightly say, cabinet secretary, the Scottish Government has struck that as a key priority. The Scottish Government’s projections, which are obviously built with the child poverty priority in mind, are completely out of step with the Scottish Fiscal Commission’s projections. The key question for the Scottish Government to be able to answer is where the money comes from because, if we are to tackle child poverty, we obviously must have the money available to do it. I am interested in the discrepancy between the Scottish Government’s figures and what the Scottish Fiscal Commission has projected.

Absolutely. The JRF has done fantastic work on the matter. The common theme that came through the evidence from all the witnesses in the previous two panels is that we need an evidence base. It is no good the Scottish Government—or any Government; not just the Scottish Government—deciding on a priority unless there is a good-quality evidence base for what works most effectively to, in this case, bring children out of poverty and ensure that the resources, which are extremely scarce at the moment, are targeted at those who are most in need. I think that you accept that, cabinet secretary.

I have a quick follow-up question. The Scottish Fiscal Commission’s projections stated that there would be an uplift of around £580 million between this financial year and next financial year. In the Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Local Government’s budget statement, the projection for the spend on social security has gone up to £800 million, which is a huge difference. How will that be funded?

That information came across when the OBR gave evidence to the committee last week. In the UK, we seem to have higher rates of economic inactivity compared with other countries. All countries experienced Covid, but we seem to be an outlier in that regard. Do you have any reflections on why that is?

Good morning. I will concentrate on the labour market and particularly on economic inactivity, which is, as you well know, a huge issue just now. I particularly want to focus on the report that the Centre for Social Justice published earlier this year, which flags up that, in Scotland, one in five of those who are classified as economically inactive want to work but are finding it difficult to get into the labour market for various reasons. In your research, do you have good-quality analysis of where the sticking points are in the labour market for those who want to work but are unable to get into work?

Is it not the case, however, that there are differences among those who are in the economic inactivity group? There are some who actually want to work but are finding it very difficult to get into the labour market and some who are not really bothered, to be quite honest. If we want to attract people back into the labour market, do we need to pursue different policies for those two different categories of people?

Thank you for that helpful answer. Do you, as part an institute that does so much economic analysis, feel that the UK has sufficient data to drill down into economic inactivity? It is a major factor in policy making. If we could solve some of the economic inactivity issues, we would not only increase revenue but increase productivity in the economy. However, it strikes me—I think that I also speak for another parliamentary committee in saying this—that the data is vague and not terribly helpful. Do you agree that, across the UK, we do not have enough data on the issue?

Mr Birt, the most recent Joseph Rowntree Foundation report, which was very interesting, was about some of the aspects of child poverty. It was very supportive of the policy that we have in Scotland, as everybody has been this morning, but you raised some interesting issues about “weaknesses” in the data, as you described it. You commented that, if the Scottish Government makes a huge commitment of £400 million-plus to a policy such as this, we must be able to drill down into the details of that policy.

What extra data would you like in order for us to be able to measure more effectively what the outcomes are when we implement a policy?