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I understand that, and I know that you cannot comment on the specific intention of the policy. However, am I correct in understanding that, for the policy to proceed, it is imperative that the Scottish Government has to hand the data that the DWP currently holds, in order to make that transfer to Social Security Scotland?

Exactly. That raises the question of the fiscal sustainability of the policy. There have been widely different estimates of its cost. The Scottish Government originally said that it would cost £100 million to £150 million, but it seems to be changing its estimate. The Institute for Fiscal Studies said that it would cost somewhere between £200 million and £300 million, and your estimate is around the £300 million mark. Why is there such a wide gap in the various estimates?

It is confusing, particularly when we are trying to look at the three-year projection, rather than just the one-year projection. Does not having the figures in the current budget information pose a serious problem for how the Government will be able to operate?

Good morning.

Professor Roy, in the media, you said that you had a week and a day’s notice from the Scottish Government about the decision to mitigate the two-child cap. I assume that that was on the Tuesday, the week before the budget.

Based on your research on other policy areas, is it feasible to have that data and a recommendation on how much the policy would cost in a fairly short timescale?

That is helpful.

The Scottish Government has said that it

“will continue to take a responsible and capable approach to Scotland’s finances as new budget pressures emerge.”

This committee said:

“We do not consider that to be an adequate response and therefore repeat our request that the Scottish Government now carries out this full assessment.”

When it comes to major decisions, particularly on social security, which, as you have rightly said, is an increasing element of the Scottish budget, do you share the committee’s concern that that information was not provided quickly?

I am referring to the fact that you did not have enough information about how the policy might be implemented.

Given that the two-child cap has been in place for some time, technically the Scottish Government could have made that decision before now, so did it surprise you to suddenly get that information?

Thank you.

Again, that is helpful. When it comes to working out how effective we are at targeting those who are most in need and where the Scottish Government’s resources should be placed, it is essential that we be able to drill down into just how effective the modelling and the policy making are, so that we assess the results in terms of that success and, therefore, the Scottish Government’s resources can be better targeted at the areas where we feel that we can make the greatest difference. Do you accept that?