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Straight off, that is a yes—obviously. Public Health Scotland’s evaluation found that the evidence points to minimum unit pricing having a

“positive impact on health outcomes”

for harmful and hazardous drinking, and the work that we have done on that is incredibly detailed. My answer is yes—those people need the most support.

The point that you made about a 40 per cent drop in the number of people accessing services has confounded us, and we are doing a bit of work to understand why it has happened. This is anecdotal, but, from conversations that I have been having across the board, I know that there are particular groups of people who, because of stigma, will not access services, which is why Professor Alan Miller and lots of organisations are doing work on stigma. Women are pretty significant in that category, which is why I am looking at the impact of minimum unit pricing on women and at the support that they need.

I am concerned that, if people with an alcohol dependency are shunned socially in the way that people who have a drug dependency are, it will be much more difficult for them to come forward for treatment. We are taking a public health approach to the issue because we hope to create circumstances in which people feel confident about coming for treatment.

As I said, we are a bit confounded by the 40 per cent drop, and we are doing detailed work to analyse it and try to understand how to pivot services to address it. Orlando Heijmer-Mason has been really involved in that work, so he can give you more detail.

I think that all analysis should be taken into account. Modelling is a recommended and respected way of getting the information that we need to tackle societal issues and move policy forward. I would not underestimate the impact of the modelling work that has been done by the University of Sheffield and Public Health Scotland. I take your point about data and facts, because we all face issues with getting information.

You asked about coming back to Parliament. As I said to Gillian Mackay, my mind is completely open regarding uprating. We are working right now on some of the information about the best way to do that. I will bring that back to the committee if that is what members wish and I am also happy to come to Parliament with that. I suspect that another change to legislation would be needed, so we would have to go through that process anyway.

I am happy to come back when I have considered all the evidence, including facts and modelling.

Yes. The modelling found that inflation would take it from 50p up to 60p or 62p, and we decided on 65p, which takes it one level further. We also looked at modelling for 70p and other prices per unit, but we felt that 65p gave us the right balance between the impact on industry and the impact on public health.

Yes, absolutely.

It will know, based on the alcohol duty.

We will keep the scheme under continuous review. Whether we do a full review in five years will probably be for other people to decide, but my commitment is to keep the scheme under continuous review to ensure that we can be fleet of foot with any changes. For example, we might well see some of the pandemic’s impacts playing out over the next couple of years, and we will need to respond to that.

A policy such as this will always benefit from being reviewed. No doubt academics and others out there will be continuously reviewing it anyway, but the Government is committed to reviewing all of this work and will continue to do so.

Good morning, convener and colleagues. I am pleased to be in front of the committee today to discuss minimum unit pricing and the two draft orders that were laid on 19 February. The Alcohol (Minimum Pricing) (Scotland) Act 2012 (Continuation) Order 2024 seeks to continue the effect of the minimum unit pricing provisions beyond the initial six-year period, while the Alcohol (Minimum Price per Unit) (Scotland) Amendment Order 2024 seeks to change the level from 50p per unit to 65p per unit.

Scotland is facing a growing burden of disease over the next 20 years. Non-communicable diseases are the leading cause of death and ill health in Scotland, and alcohol is one of the key contributors in that respect.

Committee members will know that, in September 2023, the Scottish Government published its report on the effect of minimum unit pricing in its first five years of operation. That report drew heavily on the studies included in Public Health Scotland’s comprehensive evaluation of the policy, which was commended by internationally renowned public health experts, including Professor Sir Michael Marmot and Professor Sally Casswell. Public Health Scotland estimated that, over the study period, minimum unit pricing reduced alcohol-attributable deaths by 13.4 per cent—or 156 people a year—and was likely to have reduced hospital admissions that were wholly attributable to alcohol by 4.1 per cent, compared with what would have happened had minimum unit pricing not been in place.

Alongside consideration of the impact of minimum unit pricing, the Scottish Government undertook a review of the price per unit. The decision to lay regulations increasing the price per unit to 65p is underpinned by modelling carried out by the University of Sheffield. Its research suggests that, to maintain the value of the price per unit and, therefore, to continue to achieve the public health benefits at a level estimated by Public Health Scotland in the evaluation, the minimum unit price should be increased to at least 60p.

However, it is clear that Scotland is continuing to experience significant levels of alcohol harm, and as a result, the Scottish Government is proposing to increase the price per unit to 65p in order to further increase our policy’s public health benefits. I expect—and the University of Sheffield’s modelling predicts—that implementing the increase will save additional lives.

I know that some people do not agree with minimum unit pricing, but we have considered their concerns in reaching our position. At round-table meetings that were held in 2023, many business stakeholders told us that implementing any price change quickly might be difficult. That was echoed by the regulatory review group, which recommended that a six-month implementation period would be necessary to allow business to prepare for a price increase. I am pleased to say that we have listened and, should Parliament agree to increase the minimum unit price, it will be implemented from 30 September 2024.

I am clear that minimum unit pricing is a vital part of the Scottish Government’s approach to tackling alcohol-related harm. However, it is not a silver bullet; no single intervention on issues as complex as alcohol harm would be. For a start, according to some findings in the Public Health Scotland evaluation, it was clear that some who were alcohol dependent had experienced additional challenges linked to the price of alcohol increasing. I know that specialist support and treatment are vital for those people, so, to that end, the Scottish Government has provided record funding of £112 million this year for Scotland’s alcohol and drug partnerships. That funding supports the critical delivery of services to those affected by alcohol dependency, including outreach, psychosocial counselling, in-patient and community alcohol detox, access to medication, alcohol brief interventions, alcohol hospital liaison and alcohol-related cognitive testing.

In addition, residential rehabilitation offers programmes that aim to support individuals to attain an alcohol or drug-free lifestyle. Public Health Scotland’s most recent interim report, which was published in December last year, showed that, of the 386 ADP-approved residential rehab placements, almost half—48 per cent—were for people with problematic alcohol use and 20 per cent were for people with both alcohol and drug issues. Moreover, in 2023-24, the Government provided £13 million in funding through the Corra Foundation in support of a range of projects helping those with substance addiction issues, including alcohol dependency, into treatment and recovery.

Minimum unit pricing is an important part of our approach to reducing alcohol harm and improving the health and wellbeing of our population. The decision to continue minimum unit pricing and to increase the price per unit to 65p will show that Scotland continues to be world leading in our policies to improve the health of people in Scotland. That position was recently supported by more than 80 third sector organisations, senior clinicians and leading public health academics from Scotland, the rest of the United Kingdom and further afield.

Convener, I look forward to discussing the issue further with you this morning, and I welcome questions from you and your colleagues.

As I have said, not everybody agrees with minimum unit pricing, but Public Health Scotland’s evaluation, the work that we have done, and the 80 organisations, including those at the front line, and individuals that I have mentioned tell a very different story.

In a letter to The Lancet, a number of leading public health officials, including Professors Michael Marmot and Sally Casswell, said:

“The concentration of the decrease in mortality in the lowest income groups is particularly welcome, as a narrowing of health inequalities was one of the key intentions of the policy and it has been achieved.”

I know that some people do not agree with minimum unit pricing, but, as I have said, the professional judgment and experience of front-line organisations and people with lived and living experience tell a very different story. They see the value of minimum unit pricing, and they support its continuation and uprating.

There has been a pretty marked impact on underage drinking. We should look at that in more detail, because it surely demonstrates the benefits of doing the health and wellbeing survey with children at school, which is where some of the data came from.

The Health Behaviour in School-aged Children survey—all those things have big, long names—showed that levels of drunkenness in children aged 15

“have declined steadily and are now at their lowest in 32 years”.

Some of the data has been picked up by curriculum for excellence work in schools and some comes from specific projects.