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Seòmar agus comataidhean

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 5 May 2021
  6. Current session: 12 May 2021 to 12 July 2025
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Displaying 830 contributions

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COVID-19 Recovery Committee

Road to Recovery Inquiry

Meeting date: 10 November 2022

Murdo Fraser

What do we need to do, therefore, to make it more attractive for the of people set whom we have talked about to come back into the workforce? What are the barriers to their working? Do we need more flexible working from employers, for example? Would that help? Are there any other useful interventions?

COVID-19 Recovery Committee

Road to Recovery Inquiry

Meeting date: 10 November 2022

Murdo Fraser

Following up on the labour market issue, I note that one aspect that nobody has touched on yet is a potential rise in unemployment. The Bank of England has suggested—I think that it was last week—that unemployment is set to double. If that is right, does it not raise a range of other issues? The current tightness in the labour market, which is the real issue, might flip itself over and we might find that we are no longer discussing the difficulty in finding people to do work, but talking about the opposite problem, which is having people who are unemployed and cannot get jobs.

COVID-19 Recovery Committee

Road to Recovery Inquiry

Meeting date: 10 November 2022

Murdo Fraser

Good morning. One of the issues that the committee is keen to properly understand is the extent to which the decline in the workforce post-Covid is directly down to health issues such as long Covid compared to other factors such as people choosing to take early retirement. I know that IFS has done quite a lot of work on this and I am interested to get your perspectives.

We had hoped to have John Burn-Murdoch from the Financial Times along this morning, but unfortunately he is not well. I want to quote a couple of things from the Financial Times. In an article he wrote in July, he said that chronic illness was the main driver behind the stalled labour recovery. A more recent article in the Financial Times, on 2 November by Delphine Strauss, quotes IFS research and says:

“The findings challenge the prevailing idea that ill health is the main explanation for the post-pandemic shrinkage in the UK’s workforce.”

There is quite a contradiction between these two articles. I am interested in getting IFS’s perspective on what is going on here.

COVID-19 Recovery Committee

Road to Recovery Inquiry

Meeting date: 3 November 2022

Murdo Fraser

We can move on—I put the same question to David Freeman of the ONS.

COVID-19 Recovery Committee

Road to Recovery Inquiry

Meeting date: 3 November 2022

Murdo Fraser

Good morning to the panel. I will pursue a couple of issues, if time will permit.

First, I am interested in understanding to what extent the issues that we are seeing in the labour market, in particular with economic activity, are specific to Scotland or are in line with what is happening elsewhere, whether in other parts of the UK or internationally. Are there Scotland-specific aspects that we should be interested in? I appreciate everything that you have said about the data, and that there might be gaps there, but I am interested in hearing some views on that issue. Perhaps Dr Hannah Randolph, of the Fraser of Allander Institute, can start with some thoughts.

COVID-19 Recovery Committee

Road to Recovery Inquiry

Meeting date: 3 November 2022

Murdo Fraser

To follow that up, is it possible to draw any comparisons internationally, or do we not have the data that would allow us to do that?

COVID-19 Recovery Committee

Road to Recovery Inquiry

Meeting date: 3 November 2022

Murdo Fraser

Thank you. I am going to go to David Freeman again, because the paper from the ONS says:

“Data suggests that some of the increased inactivity could be due to long COVID.”

That suggests that you might take a slightly different view from Professor Fothergill.

COVID-19 Recovery Committee

Road to Recovery Inquiry

Meeting date: 3 November 2022

Murdo Fraser

That is a very interesting reply, because it leads me neatly on to the second question that I was going to ask, which picks up what you say in your paper about the impact on the labour market of long-term sickness and, in particular, long Covid. You suggest in your paper that you are quite sceptical about the idea that long Covid is a major factor in an increase in economic inactivity.

COVID-19 Recovery Committee

Road to Recovery Inquiry

Meeting date: 3 November 2022

Murdo Fraser

Professor Fothergill opened his mouth; I thought that he was going to say something.

COVID-19 Recovery Committee

Road to Recovery Inquiry

Meeting date: 3 November 2022

Murdo Fraser

Thank you. I have another question, but before I move on, do any other members of the panel want to contribute?