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Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 5 May 2021
  6. Current session: 12 May 2021 to 16 April 2025
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Displaying 3120 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Economic and Fiscal Forecasts)

Meeting date: 31 August 2021

Kenneth Gibson

I fully appreciate that, but do you produce for the Scottish Government forecasts of what specific tax levels could mean for the block grant adjustment, so that the Scottish Government has a clearer focus on what the result of a tax policy might be?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Cabinet Secretary for Finance and the Economy

Meeting date: 31 August 2021

Kenneth Gibson

That allows me to neatly segue to your letter to the committee of 8 July, in which you indicated that the Scottish Government had started work

“to support a potential multi-year Resource Spending Review concluding in the autumn.”

Where are we with that now? Is it on schedule, and will it be informed by the fiscal framework?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Economic and Fiscal Forecasts)

Meeting date: 31 August 2021

Kenneth Gibson

I thank our witnesses very much for their very interesting presentation and for answering our questions.

10:45 Meeting suspended.  

11:05 On resuming—  

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Economic and Fiscal Forecasts)

Meeting date: 31 August 2021

Kenneth Gibson

I am sure that the clerks will let you have it. We only received it at 7 am this morning, so I am sorry for throwing that question at you.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Cabinet Secretary for Finance and the Economy

Meeting date: 31 August 2021

Kenneth Gibson

First, has any progress been made on the review of the fiscal framework? There has been real difficulty in getting the UK Government around the table. Of course, we hope to have the review by the end of the year.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Economic and Fiscal Forecasts)

Meeting date: 31 August 2021

Kenneth Gibson

Thank you. Before I bring in other members, I have some opening questions—that approach will be the norm for future committee meetings.

You talked about taxation, which is of great interest not just to the committee and the Parliament but to the wider public. Can you tell us a wee bit about the impact of fiscal drag inflation on taxation and whether the Fiscal Commission can specifically quantify its impact in comparison to the increased output as a result of the reduction in Covid pressures?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Cabinet Secretary for Finance and the Economy

Meeting date: 31 August 2021

Kenneth Gibson

You mention in your letter that

“the Chancellor has publicly asked the Office for Budget Responsibility to produce forecasts on 27 October”.

Does that mean that you believe there is likely to be a budget in mid-November or soon after?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Cabinet Secretary for Finance and the Economy

Meeting date: 31 August 2021

Kenneth Gibson

Thank you. I have a final question before we open up to questions from committee members. The Scottish Fiscal Commission noted that the Government has not guaranteed any additional funding for Covid-19 for 2021-22, and that there are currently no arrangements for deferred funding. It has said:

“Large changes in COVID-19 funding late in the financial year may create difficulties for the Scottish Government’s management of its budget.”

I asked the SFC about that, but can you also say what kind of difficulties that could create for the Scottish budget?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Cabinet Secretary for Finance and the Economy

Meeting date: 31 August 2021

Kenneth Gibson

The committee received a letter from you earlier this morning regarding a number of matters. The letter’s heading is “Process and timetable around Scottish Budget 2022-23”. In it, you touch on the delayed medium-term financial strategy and say:

“There is logic for publishing the MTFS alongside the Scottish Budget and thereby basing it on the updated SFC and OBR forecasts. Publishing it before the OBR October forecasts would mean having to use OBR forecasts from March, the effect of which would be to give a misleading sense of the fiscal outlook.”

When I raised the matter with Scottish Fiscal Commission representatives, they agreed with that.

Where are we in terms of the MTFS? Are we going to see it alongside the budget? Can you give us any further thoughts on the timing of the budget, given all the stramash that you outlined in your letter regarding the difficulty of not having confirmed timings for UK fiscal events?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Economic and Fiscal Forecasts)

Meeting date: 31 August 2021

Kenneth Gibson

We still have time, so I will let colleagues come back in again, but I will ask some more questions first. The first one is a follow-up to John Mason’s question about the uncertainty index. Where does the co-operation agreement between the Greens and the Scottish Government sit on the uncertainty index? Does it make the Scottish Fiscal Commission’s ability to forecast more or less certain?