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Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 5 May 2021
  6. Current session: 12 May 2021 to 21 April 2025
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Displaying 3120 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

I sometimes think that we look too much at what is happening in the UK and that we should look further beyond our borders, where there might be many more ideas for us to look at.

That brings us to the end of our time. I thank our guests, David Eiser and Graeme Roy, for again providing thought-provoking and helpful evidence for our scrutiny.

We will allow our witnesses to leave and then I will take a couple of minutes to update members of the committee on a couple of important matters.

Meeting closed at 13:01.  

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

Indeed.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

The decline in the number of younger people in the labour force has come up quite a lot. We discussed it to some extent in our private session before the meeting. What is the reason for that decline? Is it that more young people are in higher education? Is it our lower birth rates, or the fact that there are fewer young migrants in the population? Why is the situation here so different from that in the rest of the UK?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

I have to say that it is all a bit vague. I think that colleagues will want to explore the issue in some depth, because there are no numbers against the £620 million to explain how it comes together.

With regard to your forecasting, how has your thinking evolved since August? Why have there been changes in your judgment over that period? One of the main surprises that came out of the budget was the £190 million reduction in the net tax position, relative to your previous forecast. Will you talk us through how you arrived at that?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

If we take the nadir of business rates to 2027, the growth will be 69 per cent. That is why I did not take the nadir: it was from 2022-23 to 2026-27. I discounted what was an unusual year, but there is still a 25 per cent growth in rates, which is quite a lot for the business community to cough up. That is why I was wondering about your view on where that money will come from. Is that increase being driven by inflation? It is at twice the level of growth. Why are you predicting an increase from £2.8 billion to £3.5 billion over that four-year period? It seems quite a big increase in a relatively short period.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

We are scrutinising this budget, not the budget that we might like to see.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 7 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

Over the past few years, how accurate has the Office for Budget Responsibility been, compared with the SFC? There are significant differences in the forecasts for the next five years; the SFC predicts that the tax take in Scotland in five years will be £486 million more than the OBR has predicted. It is interesting that the OBR predicts that £78 million will come in from Scottish landfill tax while the SFC predicts only £18 million because of the impact of policy. That is a £60 million difference, which is quite a huge difference for that tax. To help us to consider how the OBR is doing relative to the SFC, will you say how accurate the two organisations’ predictions have been over the past few years?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 7 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

We will soon see.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 7 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has been quite excoriating in its critique of the UK budget, and I noticed that one of the comments was that

“A crucial ingredient in this year’s policy decisions has been the way in which OBR forecasts appear to have driven policy.”

You touched on that a wee bit in response to Michelle Thomson’s questions, but what can and should the UK and Scottish Governments do differently in terms of fiscal policy? There has been a lot of critique—given your role, I understand that—but do you have more positive suggestions for how we can make things better?

11:15  

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 7 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

What should Scotland’s spending priorities be, given what Daniel Johnson said about there being a jump in resources this year, but a real-terms decline in the following two years? Sustainability of the public finances is, obviously, a major issue for us in Scotland.