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—and then Liz Truss? [Laughter.]

In London, for example, a higher proportion of income goes on mortgages than is the case here, so interest rates are much more damaging there, when they go up.

When it comes to capital funding, you have talked about the 2023-24 budget reflecting a real-terms cut of £185 million using the GDP deflator rate. However, you have also said that the UK Government has announced a freeze on capital budgets in cash terms from 2026-27 onwards. What impact will that have on growth and productivity?

[Inaudible.]—3.2 per cent, but the price of materials has gone up by 17 per cent. That is not even in the ball park, is it?

I would have thought that some people would just not bother about a 1p increase; some might not bother with 2p or 3p, but the higher the increase, the more you will see behavioural change.

[Inaudible.]—on the Scottish budget 2023-24. I warmly welcome to the meeting, in person, Professor Graeme Roy, who is chair of the Scottish Fiscal Commission; Professor Francis Breedon, who is a commissioner on the Scottish Fiscal Commission; and John Ireland, who is the Scottish Fiscal Commission’s chief executive.

Professor Roy, I understand that you wish to make a short opening statement.

I am sorry—I try and put the questions to Professor Muscatelli so that he can decide who answers.

I think that it is a bit of a stretch to suggest that the Scottish child payment going from £10 in April this year to £25 next year somehow represents a real-terms cut.

Yes. I apologise—I should have been clearer about that.

That is interesting and is what one would anticipate.

You have said that the underlying structure of the Scottish economy is undergoing profound shifts. You talked about the impact of the pandemic. More people work from home, and some people suffer from prolonged health effects. Have you looked at that? In recent weeks, we have taken evidence from various panels to the effect that, across the UK, around 600,000 people have left the workforce; the corollary is that the number in Scotland is about 60,000. Do you look on that as a long-term consideration or as a one-year or two-year blip, when it comes to your projections of future economic growth and so on?

Thank you. I have just one more question before I open things up to colleagues around the table. Last Thursday, you sent me a letter, which said that non-domestic rates will be levied on a revalued roll. You said that

“significant uncertainties remained throughout the forecasting process.”

Obviously, that is of concern to the Scottish Fiscal Commission. Will you expand on that a wee bit, for the record?