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The long and the short of it is that the Scottish Prison Service, finding itself in a position to deliver capital projects in the aftermath of Covid, is stung by the combination of an intensely competitive marketplace because of the backlog of construction projects; supply chain costs increases, which are fuelled by Brexit and the loss of freedom and movement and the increase in fuel costs, all of which are beyond the control of the Scottish Prison Service; and the challenges of securing an appropriate workforce to deliver such projects. That is the context in which you are trying to rejuvenate your estate.

It is very obvious that there is intense financial pressure on the Government and on public services after austerity, Brexit and the spiralling punitive impact of inflation, and I am certainly not underestimating the financial pressures on the Government. In that context, it strikes me that the comments that you have put on the record about the importance of picking up the pace on preventative services are absolutely critical. To all intents and purposes, it looks as though the Government is in a bit of a bind with a rising prison population, because that is a more expensive problem to service than putting in place preventative services, which are much more affordable and, in some circumstances, produce better outcomes.

What impetus is being given across Government to make the shift into preventative services that the cabinet secretary has highlighted? I recognise that this is not just a justice compartment issue, but a wider issue across Government. Is the cabinet focusing its discussions on how a shift might be made in order to reduce the higher-cost custodial service that is being supported, with greater priority being allocated to preventative interventions?

I have one brief question, convener. The cabinet secretary referred to the chief constable’s priority on community policing, which I understand is welcome. The criminal threat that society faces is much broader than just community policing—for example, there is the sophistication of online activities that threaten the population. The necessity for Police Scotland to have the necessary online skills might not lend itself to the traditional definition of police officers and police officer numbers being the best indicators of the strength and effectiveness of the organisation. To what extent is the changing nature of crime reflected in the dialogue with the chief constable and the Scottish Police Authority, and in the budgetary choices that might be made?

When the Scottish Prison Service witnesses were with the committee this morning, the director of finance highlighted the backlog of construction projects post-Covid, coupled with the challenges in the supply chain for the replacement of infrastructure because of the impact of Brexit, with the loss of free movement of individuals, and the wider effects of construction inflation, which you told us involves a 47 per cent increase in the cost of construction materials. Is it correct that those factors will affect not just the cost of renewing the prison infrastructure, but all other aspects of capital investment across the Scottish Government’s capital programme?

Has the United Kingdom Government engaged with the Scottish Government on any changes to expected financial support to take account of what is a colossal and unprecedented set of damaging impacts on the sustainability of a long-term capital programme?

With the greatest respect, that is not the question that I asked, cabinet secretary.

I appreciate that point, but is there also wider engagement and an understanding within Government, beyond the justice organisations, of the necessity for other solutions that could result in a reduction in the prison population, such as the availability of supported accommodation, employment and training opportunities, literacy and numeracy support, health and wellbeing support and mental health interventions? Is it recognised in Government that those things are important if we are to win the prize of reducing the amount that we are spending on incarceration—which, as you suggested in the comparison that you gave the committee, is a very substantial amount of public expenditure?

So is this the moment for the Government to be bold in the challenge that it puts in front of a range of organisations—all of whom have been in front of this committee asking for more money—to say that we must shift our focus, because we cannot go on like this?

Finally, if better outcomes are being achieved, is there an argument for money to be allocated to other purposes as a result, instead of its being argued that the money allocated to a particular organisation or policy area can be increased only because it was argued for in the pre-budget process?

I will move on to another aspect. I was very struck by the detail that you placed on the record a moment ago regarding your experience in your professional life of the size of the prison population and where it is now. Making a rough calculation of the financial difference in the budgetary costs of accommodating that larger number of prisoners, I estimate that it must come in at something in the order of £90 million. It strikes me that that scale of additional financial pressure to be managed by the Scottish budget creates conditions in which the Scottish Government, the judiciary, community justice services and diversionary activity services should be absolutely focused on maximising the opportunities to avoid incarceration if it is safe for that option to be taken. Are all those players engaged in that dialogue? Are they all pointing in the same direction?