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The in-year transfers will mainly be to local authorities. Ellen—have you got the figures for the overall size of them?

No, it is not a figure that I recognise, but I will cover that issue in the reply that I give to the committee on the figures and the increase. I do not want to get into the details about Dundee, but I do not think that Dundee is representative of some of the issues in the wider sector. I am not saying that there are not issues in the wider sector, but, without getting into all the detail, there are particular issues in Dundee that are in a slightly different area. You will know about all those issues as well as I do.

I do not recognise the figure, but I will cover that point in the letter to the committee.

I am not going to try to dodge your question. I will take it away and make sure that the part that the Scottish Government can play is positive. The point that the convener made about the economic value of the university sector is a real one, so I will take your question away and get back on it.

The financial sustainability of our public services, including our universities, is absolutely critical. They are different in terms of what their issues are, their underlying resilience and where the headwinds come from. The universities will be impacted, particularly by the international students issue, and that must be resolved. I do not think that it can stand, and I really hope that it does not. I think that the UK Government’s inclination, coming in afresh, is to look again at the issue, but it is concerned about the whole debate on immigration numbers.

Broadly—yes. The devil will be in the detail, but Shirley-Anne Somerville has been in communication with the Department for Work and Pensions and directly with Liz Kendall, and I understand that the mood music has been positive.

There are a lot of technicalities to work through, and it is not just about the data. One of the things that had to be negotiated and addressed with regard to the Scottish child payment was ensuring disregard for income. If there is no such disregard for mitigating the two-child cap, there will be no gain for the family. That disregard will have to be agreed. We need data, an agreement on disregard, and legislation; the system will then need to be set up.

However, to answer your question, communication is good and there seems to be a willingness to work with us on that.

That is an option in the future if circumstances change. As you pointed out, a lot of work has been done on the public health supplement. However, I believe very strongly that, as you have set out, this is not the right time to introduce such a supplement, primarily because of the pressures of the increase in employer national insurance contributions. The Scottish retail sector has very much welcomed the fact that that has been recognised and that we are not going ahead with the supplement.

The supplement would have affected mainly large retail operations. Nevertheless, given the oncosts of employers’ national insurance contributions, we came to the conclusion that this is not the right time. I do not have a crystal ball to see whether there will be different circumstances in the future, but those were the reasons for the decision.

I have a lot of sympathy with the principle behind that, given that we are trying to avoid the loss of homes, particularly in rural Scotland, where the issue remains despite the action that has been taken. My starting point is to empower local government to make those decisions. We are looking at a consultation on the general power of competence, and you will be aware that we have taken measures to strengthen the fiscal levers that local government has.

I will need to come back to you on whether there is time left in the current parliamentary session, given that primary legislation would be needed to go beyond the existing second home levy, as you set out. I do not think that that is planned, but I will come back to you and confirm that.

I am aware that that has been looked at. Ellen, can you respond?

Those figures are correct. Lifting the two-child cap will lift around 15,000 children out of poverty. It will help many more families than that, but the estimate is that it will lift 15,000 children out of poverty. Bear in mind that those are some of the poorest families, so it will be game changing.

In relation to our statutory duty to tackle child poverty, we think that lifting the two-child cap will be the most impactful lever on the back of the other measures that we have taken, such as the Scottish child payment, free school meals and so on, to help lift some of the poorest families out of poverty.

I take your point. On 4 December, alongside the budget, we published a memorandum detailing borrowing policy and guidelines, which includes an update on progress towards a future Scottish Government bond issuance. I recognise that, as you say, it is quite high level. The initial phase of due diligence has been completed and we need to take a number of things into consideration. For example, market conditions, which are very topical, must be taken into account, and a compelling value-for-money case must be made. The next stage of due diligence work will consider all of that in more detail.

I will update Parliament over the course of the financial year, but we will proceed with caution and take all the issues into account. The current circumstances are one of the issues that will be considered as part of that due diligence work.

Jennie, do you want to add anything?

Again, I can do so at a high level and perhaps come back with further evidence from social security colleagues. The social security system, which was supported by all parties, was designed to be fairer, easier to access and more humane. That has encouraged families to apply for child disability payment rather than discouraging them.

Another issue is relative levels of disability. I will correct this if I am wrong, but I think that there are slightly higher rates of disability in the population for various reasons—perhaps that applies more on the adult disability side.