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I am not giving a view for ever and ever, because that would be beyond any of us at the table, but—

We will make sure that we learn all the relevant lessons from history. If the committee requires us to write to you in detail on the exchange that officials had with Ms McNeill, we will do that.

We are an outlier with not proven—

The evidence is clear that, if we go from three verdicts to two, that will increase convictions across the board in all cases. We need to ensure that we keep the balance and the integrity in our system if we are turning up the dial a little bit on the basis that there are other aspects—in particular, how the jury system is constructed—that influence outcomes, particularly in finely balanced cases, as opposed to just the facts and circumstances.

It is a balance, and I hear those voices. I think that that is the part of the bill that I have wrestled with most and it is the part that I will continue to wrestle with most, because it is about how we ensure that we minimise the risk of increasing miscarriages of justice. Members will have heard Lord Matthews talk about whether a majority of one is sufficient for decisions on innocence or guilt or beyond reasonable doubt in the most serious cases. That applies to all cases, of course. The jury reforms and the abolition of the not proven verdict would apply to all cases.

In many respects, that part of the bill is almost a stand-alone reform. It is not unrelated to the experience of victims in terms of transparency and the very strong views that victims have, particularly about the not proven verdict. I suppose that, in other parts of the bill, there is a much stronger correlation to improving that experience. The point that I am trying to make is that, wherever we land on that matter and, indeed, other matters, it is about the confidence in our system to maintain fairness to both parties, whether that is the complainer or the accused.

However, the work that was led by NES and Dr Bruce on the trauma-informed framework is particularly important to us and particularly valued.

I will not repeat what I said earlier, other than to acknowledge that there are some very fine judgments to be made on that matter. I have to recognise that there are particular challenges with sexual offence cases, and I have no doubt that we will continue to pursue that issue.

I also have to recognise that the evidence, as it stands, shows that the balance is tilted when you move from three verdicts to two and that the raison d’être of all our reforms is absolutely to improve access to justice but in a way that improves life and experience for complainers without compromising the rights of the accused.

Alastair, would you like to add further detail in response to Mr Swinney’s question?

I do not know what research or evidence the committee has looked at. The meta-analysis to which I referred was published last month. It is an independent bit of research by Jackson et al. It is a quantitative meta-analysis that is based on data sets from 10 different mock trials.

Again, I would point to something in the research, which we can share with the committee if that would be helpful. It says that

“the results are ... unambiguous: there is a statistically significant effect towards lower conviction rates under the Scottish three-verdict system than under an Anglo-American two-verdict system”

and that that effect was seen across offences

“ranging from death by negligence to physical assault, rape and homicide.”

We can share that research with the committee.

Even if all aspects of the bill are passed, parts of our system could still be described as unique.

That detail will be worked through with experts in sexual offences cases and trauma-informed practice, as well as with the courts, which will have to ensure that all participating parties in the new sexual offences court have undertaken the requisite training. The point about training for professionals who will support the operation of the court is important. We are working with our justice partners on how that training will be developed and, crucially, how we will implement it.

Substantial work on what is required was undertaken with the publication of the trauma-informed skills framework for the justice sector as a whole, which we debated in the Parliament. We know what trauma-informed practice is and what trauma-informed training should look like, and my officials are engaged with our partners on the mechanisms for how, as part of the implementation process for the court, all that will be rolled out in advance of the court becoming operational.

It would be wrong of me to portray those as a tool—a lever or a button—that can increase conviction rates.

I am on record expressing deep concern about conviction rates. We know that, over a five-year period, conviction rates for rape and attempted rape are at 46 per cent, compared with about 84 per cent for other crimes. When we disaggregate different types of rape cases, the conviction rate for acquaintance rape is, according to the Lord Advocate, around 20 or 25 per cent. There is a difference in conviction rates depending on whether the victim is an adult or a child. From memory, in relation to children, where there has been an offence under, I think, section 18 of the Sexual Offences (Scotland) Act 2009, the conviction rate is higher, at more than 70 per cent; in relation to adults, where the offence is prosecuted under section 1 of that act, the rate is about 35 per cent.

I cannot be unconcerned about those rates. I must respect the independence of the courts and judiciary—indeed, I am under a legal obligation to do so—but I want to find the right way to tackle the issue and I want to look at the evidence without prejudging, because we cannot ignore those conviction rates.