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I remind Mr Kerr that I have always been utterly candid about the impact of each and every measure that we have undertaken. We have undertaken two early emergency release schemes, and I have always explicitly stated that, although there are advantages to such schemes, they provide only temporary relief—sometimes for up to six months; sometimes for less than that—because they are emergency measures. I have never pretended that early emergency release schemes provide anything other than temporary relief that is necessary at a particular point in time.

Reducing or changing the point of automatic release for some short-term prisoners provides a sustained reduction compared with what the prison population would otherwise be. Obviously, I am not in control of the flows into our prison system. However, as I said in response to the convener’s question, STP40 has had an impact on the short-term prison population, and the measure that we are talking about today will reduce the prison population in a sustained way compared with what the population would otherwise be. I gave the figures earlier, so I will not repeat them.

Let me be clear that there is no one solution. I assure Mr Kerr that the Government has never pretended otherwise. Bigger and more fundamental reforms are required.

I do not think that we have that information. There is a plethora of statistics on reoffending, which relate broadly to short-term and long-term prisoners. The risk management authority does work on particular categories of offenders. Because there is a lag in the statistics on reoffending, I do not have the instantaneous information that Mr Kerr and others might seek. Claire Martin works on that policy, so I invite her to add to that.

There is no governor’s veto in this scheme, in the same way as there was no governor’s veto in the STP40 programme. The reason for that is that a governor’s veto can be justified, policy-wise or legally, with emergency early release because we are undertaking a process at pace. However, when you change the point of release for a cohort of prisoners going forward, there is no scope for a governor’s veto. There are advantages and disadvantages of particular schemes. I recognise that people value the governor’s veto in the context of emergency early release, but, as I said, emergency early release does not reduce the prison population in a sustained way.

As we did with the STP40 programme, we have excluded prisoners who are serving sentences for domestic abuse and sexual offences. There is strong justification for that, because, historically, there have been barriers to reporting such crimes. We want to maintain the confidence of the public, and women in particular, to come forward and report such crimes, so there is a robust case for that exclusion.

10:30

We are not attempting to create a hierarchy of offences. As I said, as was the case under previous schemes, most short-term prisoners who will be released under the proposed scheme will be serving sentences of less than two years. It is worth remembering that the prisoners who are released earlier are people who are due to return to our communities in the not-too-distant future and who are not subject to statutory supervision. At the time of sentencing, the court makes a decision about whether someone should be subject to a supervised release order, an extended sentence or whatever. In sentencing a prisoner, the court evaluates what is proportionate, what element is punishment and what is required to manage the future risk.

As is the case in other parts of the UK and Europe, we are contending with a rising prison population. The presumption against sentences of less than a year is a presumption, not a ban. That has resulted in an overall reduction, but the number is still high. [Interruption.] I am sorry—I am just trying to find the annex that I sent you.

If I can take those three elements, I will try to be brief—

That is much lower than it has been in previous months.

I am sorry that there is not a shorter, more direct answer to Ms McNeill’s question, but the issue is complex. Although someone must serve a minimum of 15 per cent of their sentence before they are eligible for a home detention curfew, there are other eligibility criteria and a requirement that the period of HDC cannot be more than 210 days. That means that the reality is that most people on HDC are not getting out after serving 15 per cent of their sentence.

There is a bit of a complex interaction—I am sorry about that, but we will follow that up in writing.

It is really difficult for me to say. Historically, people have gravitated towards registration in relation to long-term prisoners, but there will be many victims who are not registered. We have been engaging in order to get people registered—for example, officials and I have met victim support organisations, and the Prison Service works with victim support organisations. People can still register.

Yes. As I said in my opening remarks, we have increased prison capacity by 400 since 2024, and that has involved bringing back disused halls and working with HMP Grampian, HMP Polmont and, I think, HMP Edinburgh to maximise current capacity. Obviously, though, there is a limit to the current estate, but we have done that work and have increased the capacity of the existing establishments.

Of course, we have a prison building programme, too, but we need to take other actions to increase confidence in, and the capacity of alternatives to, custodial sentences and to answer some of the questions and points that have been put to us as a Parliament and as a country by the sentencing and penal policy commission.

Yes, it was 61. The return to custody rate for the STP40 programme was 5 per cent, which equated to 12 or 13 individuals.

I appreciate that the return to custody rate is not the same as the reconviction rate. The figure that Mr Kerr referred to is, if I recall correctly, the reconviction rate for very short-term sentences of less than four years—I think that you quoted 40 per cent, Mr Kerr.

Yes. HMP Highland is on track for the building work to be completed later this year, and the construction of HMP Glasgow is continuing as planned.