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When we embarked on the emergency early release programme, the cohort of people who were eligible to be assessed for home detention curfew fell. Although we have been using home detention curfew increasingly over the past few years, the numbers of people being granted HDC fall when we are doing emergency early release. They would also remain comparatively low if we were doing STP30, because that would involve a similar cohort. Forgive me; I do not like talking about focused cohorts but I will use that word for the sake of simplicity.

You asked for a figure for the projected sustained decrease in the prison population under the regulations. That figure is up to 312, and the baseline figure is 239 to 312.

Absolutely, I accept that.

There is a general point about people not understanding how sentencing works now—that is evidenced by work that has been done by the sentencing and penal policy commission and the Scottish Sentencing Council. Many people are surprised by the fact that people are eligible for release on parole or non-parole licence, or about the proportion of their sentence that a short-term prisoner will spend in custody. There is an issue that needs to be addressed in terms of public discourse. As I said, there will certainly be fewer people going out on home detention curfew—the number is down to around 40 per cent today.

I am happy to do that, Ms McNeill. It is also worth remembering that folk who are released on home detention curfew are tagged and are subject to a licence and recall.

Again, that is crucially important work. I will not rehearse previous debates and arguments about the need to simplify the victim notification schemes. That was a big focus of some of the work that we all did together on the Victims, Witnesses, and Justice Reform (Scotland) Act 2025.

Currently, 3,237 people are registered with the VNS. I concede that on-going efforts are required to increase awareness of the victim notification scheme and to encourage and facilitate registration. For the majority of registered victims, the perpetrators are serving a long-term sentence. There are 472 registered victims in relation to perpetrators who are serving a short-term sentence. Those figures will be a few weeks old, by the way—I got them because I was answering a parliamentary question.

We can give an assurance that, if someone is a registered victim and the release date of the perpetrator is changed, they will be notified. The point is that we need to continue to increase efforts to ensure that people know how to register. The Government is doing that work collectively with victim support organisations and the Scottish Prison Service.

It is also fair to say that a lot of work has gone into that over the years.

We currently have a system that people have to opt into. I do not want to incur the wrath of the convener, but there has been a live debate about how we recalibrate that with regard to the victim information team, the work on having a central point of contact and the work around more facilitated conversations. Ultimately, we are reliant on people registering, but there is a bigger debate about how we recalibrate that.

I have written to the committee about all of that. We can always reshare that information, of course.

It is important that I do not allow words to be blistered. I repeat what I said earlier, which is that the Government and I have always been absolutely candid about the impact of any particular measure. I have never sold any individual measure as the silver bullet or the cure.

The only further point that I would make is that we have a situation in our prisons right now. People can critique the past and debate the future—I assure members that nobody will do that more than I—but the question is, “What are we prepared to do here and now?” Sometimes, hard decisions have to be made. I press the motion.

Thank you, and good morning. I begin by placing on record my gratitude and appreciation to Scottish Prison Service staff, justice social work services and other partners for their on-going dedication, hard work and commitment in all that they do.

As the committee will be aware, a rising and more complex prison population is not a challenge that is unique to Scotland. The Government has taken a range of actions to tackle the situation and to create a sustainable prison population. We have optimised the existing prison estate to create 400 additional spaces compared with 2024 and we have provided the Scottish Prison Service with capital funding of £355 million this year and £458.5 million next year to continue the construction of two new prisons, which will add 464 places. The resource budget for the SPS next year will also be increased to £509.3 million—almost half a billion pounds. In addition, we have significantly increased investment in community justice, bringing the total funding for the next financial year to £169 million. That will enable the expansion of alternatives to custody, including diversion, alternatives to remand, and community sentences, which we know are more effective at reducing reoffending than short custodial sentences.

Despite our best efforts, the prison population remains stubbornly high, which poses significant risks to those who are living and working in our prisons. The prison population stands at 8,361, with 13 establishments operating above design capacity and eight at red risk status. Should the regulations be approved, they would reduce the proportion of the custodial sentence that certain short-term prisoners would be required to serve before they are automatically released from 40 per cent to 30 per cent. The change is necessary to ensure that our prisons remain safe and effective. It could result in a sustained reduction of between 239 and 312 individuals, which would better support the delivery of crucial services in our prisons, pre-release planning and the safety and wellbeing of all those who live and work in our prisons. The change would apply only to those who are serving short-term sentences, and those with sentences for sexual or domestic abuse offences will be excluded. That recognises the barriers to reporting in relation to those types of offences and the need to maintain the progress that has been made in increased reporting.

My officials and I continue to engage with partners to maximise planning and support for those who are leaving custody. Additionally, the proposed changes would not take effect until after the current emergency early release scheme ends in April. Those who are eligible for immediate release would be released in tranches to minimise the impact on community services.

I have always been clear that there is no single or simple solution to the challenge that is faced by Scotland, other parts of the United Kingdom and beyond. Although the Government has already taken and continues to deliver a range of actions to increase the availability of alternatives to custody, a long-term change in our approach is needed. We now have the evidence-based recommendations of the sentencing and penal policy commission. Our collective duty is to consider what measures would deliver an effective justice system where prisons are safe environments that are focused on rehabilitation and reducing reoffending to ensure that we have fewer victims and safer communities.

10:15

Members will recall the statement that I gave to Parliament a few weeks ago. That was the Scottish Government’s initial response to what is a comprehensive and evidence-led report. The very nub of it is to point out that a very high prison population does not equate to a safer Scotland. There is a clear invitation to us all to do things differently.

The report is wide ranging and comprehensive, and we are looking at each of the recommendations. Decisions will, of course, be for the next session of Parliament, but I hope that, in the time that we all have between now and then, we can collectively give serious consideration to the report, as there will be decisions that need to be made or not. Given the scale of the report, we will need to look at what is deliverable and at prioritisation.

The evidence over the past two decades has been clear on the ineffectiveness of short-term sentences. I think that Ms Mackay asked a question in the chamber about the number of people serving a sentence of less than a year. If we take a snapshot on any given day, we find that the figure is about 500 people. The majority of short-term prisoners are serving sentences of two years or less. A body of evidence shows that there are better solutions, when it is safe and appropriate to use them, that make our communities safer.

There is a lot of work to do to consider the recommendations collectively and individually. I know that we are all in campaigning mode, but my plea is that we should try to find ground on which we can reach consensus. If we do not want to keep needing to make decisions that give temporary relief—which is what early emergency release measures do—we need to agree to the regulations that we are considering today, which will provide sustained relief. However, the regulations are only one small part of the jigsaw. We need to carry out more fundamental longer-term reform in order to have safer prisons and a sustainable prison population.