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Yes, that would be helpful.

On human rights and on short-term assistance, I think that the inclusion of that assistance is really welcome, and I am pleased to say that it will make a material difference to people’s lives.

I understand that the criteria are different for the two payments, but offering someone short-term assistance at a really difficult time in their life, during a transition period, would not be giving them a guarantee to the next benefit, which has different eligibility criteria; it would merely be easing that process, in what would be a relatively sensible way, as the two benefits might not be called the same, but they are the same type of benefit. Might you reconsider the matter on that basis?

On Jeremy Balfour’s question about the deadline, I take your point that people might prefer to receive payment in January or February. It would be good to see the research on that. Maybe that means that you could just move the deadline to those dates. I feel that a deadline gives people certainty. It is also consistent with what you require people who are applying for benefits to do, as they have a number of stringent deadlines. It would be much more congruent to say, “We have deadlines, just as you have deadlines,” instead of, “You have deadlines but we have none.” I think that that would be a proper way forward.

My question is on eligibility. As we know, over half of people who are living in poverty have a disabled person in their household, and that can be a person with a disability of any severity. If we are looking to reduce levels of poverty—and levels of child poverty, as 34 per cent of children in poverty live in a household with a disabled person in it—it is really important that we look at those criteria.

There are significant levels of fuel poverty in Scotland, and we know that, regardless of age or severity of impairment, disabled people have higher costs of living and are more likely to live in poverty. This is an opportunity for us to do something to significantly address that by making the winter payment. I guess that I am making a policy point. I am asking whether you recognise that that is one way in which you could begin to reduce the poverty that all disabled people, not just those with the most severe conditions, face.

Thank you.

To follow on from the point that you made earlier about being able to do a supplementary forecast, does that mean that, if there was a decision or a policy change between budgets, the information would be available to the Government to be able to adjust its spending appropriately?

Thank you for your responses to my questions and those of other members.

Your paper notes the significant challenges around the predictions on the adult disability payment. We have heard a lot about the volatility around that. Can you tell us a bit about what you have done to get the information that you have and what further information you think could help you? I note what Claire Murdoch said about data collection from Social Security Scotland. It would be helpful for the committee to get a better understanding of the sort of data that you feel that you will need in order to be able to predict future costs.

That was helpful.

On the issue of policy change, Professor Smith, you mentioned that a long-term approach would be needed, given the finances involved. Do you have an idea of the timescales that would be needed in order to change, for example, eligibility for ADP? When should the questions start to be asked in order that the forecasting can be suitable and the budgets can be moved as and when they are needed?

I presume that, as the Government gradually uses or chooses to use more social security powers, it will need to carry out similar forecasting exercises before taking decisions on how to do things differently from how the United Kingdom Government does them. What discussions have you had with the Government on forecasting further changes to social security? Have any particular areas of potential spend for new benefits been identified?

The papers that were provided in advance of the meeting, including your submission, were really helpful. I hope that I have enough grasp of a complex paper on what is a complex area to get hold of to ask useful questions.

My first question is about forecasting in the fiscal context. How much advance notice of policy implementation or policy intention do you normally get or would you expect in order to be able to forecast?

Thanks very much for joining us and for the submissions that you have sent in, which have been very helpful.

At the beginning of this week, as you will know, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation reported on poverty as part of challenge poverty week. It highlighted the importance of lifting people in the six target groups in Scotland out of poverty. Could the panel say something about what would be needed in employment support to do that for lone parents, for women and for disabled people? What role does social security have in that context?