Seòmar agus comataidhean

Do not answer if you do not want to.

You have already touched on how uncertainty will be reduced as benefits are launched. We have seen what has happened since December, and Dame Susan has talked about how things have changed. With regard to the point that the convener made—and as far as our own analysis is concerned—what should be the feed-in time in that respect? If we are talking about how things have changed, how early should this committee be engaging with the Scottish Fiscal Commission in that process instead of these things coming almost as a shock to us? Should we be engaging earlier on the impact of such changes? Even from December to June, the situation has changed quite substantially. My question, therefore, is more about the process: should we have been engaging with you earlier rather than at this stage? You have indicated that uncertainty has increased since then, but at what point should we be analysing the situation and working with the Scottish Fiscal Commission on these matters?

You touched on the inflationary outlook. I do not think that anybody would have forecast that it would go up to 9 per cent, even with some of the geopolitical events that have been going on. That is higher than previous forecasts. This is a crystal ball question: where do you see inflation going? When the issue was discussed on Radio 4 this morning, various factors were mentioned. It was asked whether the current high inflation was a blip or something that would be around for the next year or two. There are the food supply issues and so on.

Where do you see inflation going? I know that it is hard to give an answer that you could be held to, but do you think that inflation will peak in the next year or two, or do you see it continuing to be an issue beyond then?

We will have to be very much aware of that.

I appreciate where you are coming from. I am not so much asking about what specific changes you think could be made to the fiscal framework but asking about whether it helps or hinders your forecasting work. I am sure that, at some stage, you would have some input into what you think that would look like. I can understand why you are not doing that here. The key thing is whether it helps or hinders your forecasting.

As you have suggested, any such point in time could change fairly quickly. Our analysis, then, would be based on the situation at that particular point in time, but the fact is that circumstances might change, as they have even within the six months that we are talking about. How we analyse these matters is a matter for deliberation by the committee and, indeed, with the Scottish Government.

Good morning. My first question is on an issue that you touched on. Which Scottish Government policies are having the greatest impact on the forecasts and which are having the least impact?

That is helpful—thank you.

I will raise the issue of how we analyse that later, because you are right. In her opening remarks, Dame Susan referred to an increase of £300 million, some of which was due to modelling changes, with a certain element of inflation. Such changes, though small, can have a major impact. After all, we are talking about £200 million or £300 million—it can make a huge difference. How we analyse that going forward might be an issue that we need to take up.

Thank you. That was very helpful.

My next questions are on waiting lists. You have mentioned people being on waiting lists for more than five years—section 112(2)(b) of the 2015 act is on that—and how we might tackle the problem. Do you want to add anything?

My second question is about communication, which Peter Duncan touched on, and exploring with people who are on waiting lists new sites and what can be done to help them to look for new sites. I ask Ian Woolard, first, about waiting lists, being on a list for more than five years and communications. Both witnesses have touched on that already.