Seòmar agus comataidhean

Good morning. First, I must disclose, as per my entry in the register of members’ interests, that I own some buy-to-let property and that I was previously a member of SAL, but I have not been for some years.

The convener has asked a lot of the questions that I might have asked. However, I want to explore a bit more your thinking about the market.

As a statement of intent, I am not uncomfortable with the Scottish Government raising revenue through taxation or with a longer trend of diminishing the private rented sector to private landlords and increasing social housing. That is not an issue for me. I am interested in exploring what your calculations are on the long-term effect in the market and in the round triggered by the ADS. As we have already explored, that falls into LBTT. Can you talk me through your risk assessment of the policy change, what you see as the risks, to whom they apply, and the impact when they occur? I want to understand a bit more how you make policy decisions beyond deciding to raise revenue, which I entirely appreciate.

You make my point for me: the policy cannot be seen in isolation. I am trying to explore your consideration of the housing market, in which, for a variety of reasons, the supply of properties to rent might well be diminished. There is anecdotal evidence of that already happening; indeed, Professor Graeme Roy has pointed that out. That is not hitting yet, because income from LBTT is being brought in. However, it cannot be that far down the road before that has an effect on the wider market that will disproportionately affect people who need to rent and continue to rent in respect of rent rises and people exiting the market.

I go back to my original question. Do you undertake a risk assessment of tax changes that is based on setting out what the risk is, the probability of its occurring, and the impact that that will have if it occurs?

It does have an impact. I am not saying that it is the only thing that does; we have seen a number of malignant activities that have also had an impact. I refer to section 24 of the Finance Act 2015 from Westminster and some of the rent changes. I agreed with the actions that the Scottish Government took, because I recognise the restrictions on its ability to support people at a time of crisis. However, if we look at the issue from the other side of the fence, we see that there is evidence that landlords are starting to leave the market. That will absolutely have an impact on available supply and therefore on rents.

I go back to my point. In respect of the wider market, of which the ADS is only part, can I assume that you do not undertake the type of risk assessment that I have asked about? Can I assume that you do not determine the risk, the probability of its occurring, and the impact on the wider market?

I will finish off on the point. I appreciate that I am straying into territory that is not yours and that a lot of work is going on in housing, but may I impress on you that, as the issue is being thought about in the Scottish Government, people should look across the piece at a variety of stakeholders and, critically, look at the housing market as a market? I am not saying that I agree with all of this. I am very supportive of what the Scottish Government is trying to achieve, but there has to be an assessment of the behavioural effects and so on. Thus far, I have not been convinced that there is a recognition of that, and I certainly have not seen any data on risk that would support that.

Yes, convener. In the interests of time, I will be quick.

I thank the witnesses very much for everything that they have said so far.

I want to go back to the focus of the session, which is the outlook for business investment. I want to ask about your perceptions for women in your sector: women-led SMEs, women in renewables generally, and women in the just transition. Given the very fulsome comments about data, can you make it clear whether your comments are merely perceptions, based on anecdotal evidence, and where you do not have the data collectors in place? On the back of that, where would you need to see data collectors in place?

Could Claire Mack lead off on that? In the interests of time, I will just go around the panel.

What about the question about data, the current status, and how you know whether that is true?

I sense that Jonny Clark wants to come in on that, given that he was nodding.

Do Jon O’Sullivan and James Reid have anything to add? I appreciate that it is a vast topic.

Good morning. Over the course of this discussion, you have teased us a few times about the Ana Stewart review and, like you, I do not want to steal her thunder, because I know that something is coming out soon. Thinking about your role, I am heartened to hear how closely you are working with her, because, while looking at the key areas in preparation for today’s session, I picked up on the fact that there does not seem to be anything specific about actively encouraging female entrepreneurs, which, in my opinion—probably unsurprisingly—is a huge gap. Can you confirm that you see that squarely as part of your role?

Secondly, can you give us a flavour of the themes that you hope to see in relation to female entrepreneurs? What does an ideal Scotland for female entrepreneurs look like?

[Inaudible.]