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It strikes me that it would be helpful to look at that in a quantitative as well as a qualitative way, because it exemplifies the inefficiency that plays into some of our other costs.

I have previously asked about the ScotWind funding. To be honest, I was a wee bit disappointed when I read the Scottish Government’s response to the relevant part of our report. It said:

“Consideration will be given to how future revenues will be deployed.”

The point that I was trying to make was that I do not want consideration to be given to how future revenues will be deployed. First, I want there to be recognition of the importance of setting up a sovereign wealth fund. Secondly, I want consideration to be given to costs, implications and process. Thirdly, I want a specific commitment to be made that fiscal rules will be set.

Although I accept that you cannot bind your successors, I would like to hear a commitment that, this session, you will set aside, say, 5 per cent of all moneys. That would recognise the revenue challenges that you face today and also look to the longer term to provide the building blocks for fiscal sustainability. Will you comment on the response that I highlighted, as it strikes me that it misses the point altogether?

We have had some discussions with the Government around the nature of risk. I made an observation on that when we were going through the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill. According to the evidence that I saw, risk assessment concerned the probability of a risk occurring but not the impact, if it occurred. Can you reassure me that the risk assessment has been done with the academic rigour that you would want to see?

I raised with the Government the possibility of the situation that we found ourselves in with Isla Bryson, before it occurred, and I said that, although the probability of such a risk occurring was low, the impact, should such a situation arise, would be extraordinarily high. I cannot say that I was happy to be proven right.

It is a matter of disaggregating probability and impact. Can the minister reassure us that that technical approach is being followed and is embedded among all service providers?

My ears pricked up when you mentioned the Finance and Public Administration Committee, which I am a fellow member of. I do not recall evidence being brought to bear that backs up your assertion, although I do not doubt what you said. Will you help me to recall that?

You cannot introduce yet another cliff edge, on top of the UK Government one.

To go back to a comment that was alluded to by the convener earlier, our specific challenge in this committee is to take a view on the financial memorandum as presented. The questioning thus far has brought out a significant number of areas where there is uncertainty on costs, and we have covered a lot of them. We know that standing orders set some rules around the production of financial memorandums including on the best estimates, costs and savings and so on, and also on indicating the margins of uncertainty and a range of costs. Therefore, when I looked at the FM, given all the things that have been brought out thus far, such as the lack of consideration for future inflation and certain areas being missing, I was surprised to see that all the costs appear to be fixed costs. What was the rationale for not including ranges that would give an indication of certainty or otherwise?

Do you understand the point that I am making about the role of the committee members? For the reasons that you have set out, there is a question as to how confident we can be in the numbers, as presented. I have asked this question of witnesses before. On a scale of zero to 10, where zero is no confidence and 10 is absolute confidence, what number would you give me specifically on the FM, as presented today?

You make a fair point about the probability of occurrence in both scenarios. There will not be huge volumes of cases, but when the situation occurs, it could potentially have quite a big impact on one person. Therefore, I want to follow up on the convener’s comment about the possibility of Revenue Scotland having some kind of discretionary power.

I think that you already concede that there continue to be some scenarios that, because of their nature, will require the introduction of further SSIs in order to be ironed out. I am still a bit unclear as to why you would not grant a discretionary power to Revenue Scotland. I know that you look for certainty in the law, which is eminently sensible, but you concede that there continue to be some anomalies as we get into the detail. Giving a discretionary power to Revenue Scotland would surely allow for the ironing out of such anomalies. If HM Revenue and Customs—which obviously has more resource; I understand that—can do that without there being continuing legal cases, why would Revenue Scotland not be able to do that?

You have highlighted that it is uncertainty cubed, because of the points that you have made. What consideration did you give to other mechanisms? I sense that you are going through the process, which says that you must present an FM in terms of the standing orders of the Parliament, in the face of considerable uncertainty. Did you consider other approaches? I fully accept that there are significant challenges around the cliff edge of UK Government funding, so did you consider going further on in the process before presenting an FM? You will appreciate that, as a committee, we cannot have a great deal of confidence in the FM, as presented, for the reasons that you have set out. For example, did you consider using co-design to get more firmness around the figures?

That goes back to the convener’s earlier point about framework bills. If you are saying that the bill is as good as it can be at this point and that further clarity over numbers will emerge later, that will happen beyond the point where the finance committee has oversight of it, which will necessarily lead to considerably less financial scrutiny from a parliamentary point of view. Therefore, logically, there will be a higher probability of increased costs, because we do not have our fingers all over it from a purely financial perspective. Do you recognise that that might be a concern for us? We are repeatedly noting that we have incredibly constrained public finances, but in the face of that constraint we are building less scrutiny into the processes.