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Deborah, I know that you have not had the chance to contribute yet. Good morning.

Have we been able to capture what we now know, with hindsight, would have been the key intervention points at which behaviour tipped into dysregulation? Have we gained new insights into that? In other words, is that a positive from the pandemic? We knew before what the key points of intervention were. Are they still the same and have they simply been exacerbated, or do we have any new insights? That is what I am trying to get to.

Good morning, everybody, and thank you for attending—[Interruption.] I hope that you can hear me now—can you?

I want to kick off the session with a bit of framing out, because the feedback that you have provided to the call for evidence is very content rich. First, at a summary level, what do you see as being the expected benefits of the presumption of mainstreaming? I ask that question because anticipated benefits were identified when the policy was put in place, and we now have a lot of data to draw on. That is my first question, which is an open, framing question.

Secondly, what do you see as being the main impacts of implementation of the policy on children with complex needs? I suspect that we will want to get into a lot of detail, so you can keep your answers at a summary level. What do you see as being the expected benefits, and what have the impacts been of implementation of the policy? I invite everyone on the panel to respond.

My last question concerns affordable housing, which I brought up before. I picked up on something in the wording of the Government’s response. In the light of the commentary made about capex—I strongly agree with that commentary, because it is a significant challenge—and FTs, the response says:

“We remain focused on delivering 110,000 affordable homes”.

Previously, the wording that was used was that “we remain committed” to delivering 110,000 affordable homes. Is that change an indicator of anything—given the significant challenges around capex and FTs that we discussed earlier?

Good morning, cabinet secretary. Thank you for joining us.

Before I move on to my more substantive questions, I want to raise a couple of wee quick points, the first of which is about capital expenditure. Given the significant cuts that we face—it is anticipated that capital expenditure could be cut by 20 per cent, in real terms, by 2028-29—will you consider scheduling a debate on the issue? Ironically, people outside the Parliament have, for the first time, become alive to the implications of the capex cut, because of what it means for treatment centres. As you know, the subject is of great interest to me and one that I have consistently asked about. Will you consider scheduling such a debate? I think that it would be valuable.

If one had to put a wee bet on it, the evidence suggests that the constrained environment for public services will continue. To me, that suggests that there is a greater need to do something like that, because it is about fiscal sustainability.

My next question is on social security spend, which is another area where there are concerns about long-term affordability and sustainability. Ironically enough, having raised the point about the longer-term picture, I saw when I read through the response that it deliberately referenced

“monitoring all areas of expenditure during the year”.

That is exactly not what the point is; the point is that, when we extrapolate the numbers, we see that it is not sustainable, particularly given that it is a demand-led area. Therefore, regardless of whether the approach is responsible and capable, the point is that you are looking at expenditure only in-year. As a result, I was surprised by that response.

This ties in with earlier comments about the Scottish Fiscal Commission’s report on sustainability, but do you recognise the very real concern that, when we ask about the long term, your answer that you will take a responsible approach in-year does not provide confidence? That is the issue. Arguably, we have been taking a responsible approach in-year, every single year, but that is not the issue—the issue is the projection that has concerned the committee so much.

Exactly. Having such a discussion and fleshing out the position of all the political parties could be helpful.

My next question comes on the back of the convener’s comments about single-year versus multiyear funding and what the Scottish Fiscal Commission had to say about that in its fiscal sustainability report. Does the Scottish Government collect any statistics on the sunk costs of doing all the monitoring and assessment on a year-by-year basis? It strikes me that that is not only inefficient but extremely expensive. Do you collect any stats on that? In effect, it is money lost.

Thank you.

It strikes me that it would be helpful to look at that in a quantitative as well as a qualitative way, because it exemplifies the inefficiency that plays into some of our other costs.