PE1908/A: Review the impact of the vaccine passport regulations
Thank you for your email of 7 October 2021 about the request from the Citizen Participation and Public Petitions Committee for the Scottish Government’s views on the action called for in the following new petition—
• PE1908: Review the impact of the vaccine passport regulations
Please accept my apologies for not meeting your deadline.
The Scottish Government published the Covid Vaccine Certification Evidence Paper on 29 September. This paper sets out the wide ranging and balanced evidence available in relation to Certification, and was used to inform Ministers’ decision to proceed with the scheme.
The purpose of the scheme and outcomes are set out in the Coronavirus (COVID-19): mandatory Vaccine Certification proposals of the 9 September and the Coronavirus (COVID-19): Vaccine Certification update of the 23 September. The policy objectives of the scheme are four-fold:
• Reduce the risk of transmission of Coronavirus
• Reduce the risk of serious illness and death thereby alleviating current and future pressure on the National Health Service
• Allow higher risk settings to continue to operate as an alternative to closure or more restrictive measures
• Increase vaccine uptake
In line with the Covid legislation the Scottish Ministers are required to review the regulations every 21 days, and they must only remain in place whilst they are necessary and proportionate. As you know, the last review was on 26 October and was reported to Parliament on that date. The next reviews are scheduled for 16 November and 7 December. Ministers look at a range of data to determine whether the regulations continue to be required. This includes the current state of the pandemic, the trends, and anticipated pressures such as winter and any potential rise in infection arising from, for example, COP26 and the forthcoming festive season. Certification will be considered as part of that review.
The Scottish Government is committed to monitoring the impact of Certification across the aims of the scheme. Understanding the effects of the scheme, and how it is being implemented, requires data about the use of the technology, vaccinations, and the impact on society and the economy. However, as has been the case throughout the pandemic it is challenging to isolate the effects of any one element of the Covid response. We are developing data and operational insight and intelligence that will help us monitor the impact of the scheme and I enclose a copy of a letter that the Deputy First Minister (Annex A1) has today sent to the Covid Recovery Committee which sets out the range of information currently available in relation monitoring the scheme.
Annex A1
Deputy First Minister and Cabinet Secretary for Covid Recovery
John Swinney MSP
F/T: 0300 244 4000
E: dfmcscr@gov.scot
Siobhian Brown MSP
COVID-19 Recovery Committee
Room T3.60
Scottish Parliament
Edinburgh
EH99 1SP
covid19.committee@parliament.scot
By email:
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12 November 2021
Dear Siobhian
VACCINE CERTIFICATION MONITORING INFORMATION
In my letter of 28 October, I provided the Committee with information on the data we currently use to monitor the impact of the scheme across the aims, and during my appearance before the Committee on 4 November I undertook to write with further information. I have set out at Annex A further information relevant to monitoring of the scheme that may be of interest.
With regard to the information I provided previously, when I attended the Committee on 4 November we discussed a point of inaccuracy in my letter of 28 October in which I had said that data on the number of people who have reported inaccuracies with the information contained in their vaccination record was not currently available.
The data released by NHS National Services Scotland under FOI on 1 November stated that since the NSS National Contact Centre (NCC) started assisting with vaccination issues on approximately the 15th July 2021, the NCC had received approximately 42,000 cases where an issue was raised to investigate. Most of the issues relate to vaccination records.
I indicated to the Committee that I was reviewing the point made in my letter in the light of that FOI release.
I have subsequently asked NSS for additional information in order to better understand the position and NSS has confirmed that a case relates to each issue raised, so a person can raise more than one issue and hence have more than one live case created. If an individual raised more than one case for the same issue (e.g. incorrect name) then the cases are consolidated into a single case.
NSS took a sample of 100 cases and found that of the sample:
• 28% related to cases regarding personal data issues such as name or address;
• 41% related to clinical issues;
• 16% related to first or second vaccine outside Scotland
• The remainder related to miscellaneous issues including CHI queries and data flows.
As of 11 November, there were 7,735 cases still being worked through. I hope the Committee will agree that the number of records that need to be updated is extremely small in the context of nearly 10 million vaccinations having been delivered since the programme began. It is to be expected that a programme of this size, delivered at this pace, will generate some issues for a limited number of people.
I can confirm that my letter of 28 October was an accurate reflection of the position in that data is not available on the number of individuals who have raised an issue.
Officials have also considered what further data and evidence is available to support monitoring, beyond that suggested by the Committee. The material attached to my letter of the 28 October has been updated and is attached at Annex B to reflect this.
Now that domestic Certification has been in operation in Scotland for nearly six weeks, and enforcement of the regulations is in place, officials met again with equality and human rights stakeholders on 11 November to discuss their experience of the scheme so far and initial views on the possibility of extending its scope. It was a constructive discussion and I will share a note of the meeting with the Committee.
As I said on 4 November, I remain committed to engaging with the Committee on data and evidence moving forward and will provide further updates in due course. I hope this is of assistance to the Committee in providing further clarity.
JOHN SWINNEY
Annex A
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION TO SUPPORT MONITORING
The following sources provide further information relevant to monitoring of the scheme.
Business Impacts and Conditions Survey (BICS) – Weighted Scotland Estimates
BICS is a voluntary fortnightly business survey which captures rapid data on businesses’ responses on how their turnover, workforce, prices, trade and business resilience have been affected by current conditions, including the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the end of the EU transition period. The estimates are for businesses with a presence in Scotland and that have 10 or more employees. Most recent data was published on 12 November, and focuses on businesses’ responses from Wave 7 to Wave 42 of the survey.
Specific data that may be of interest to the Committee include:
• tables on business trading, turnover performance, and turnover expectations, which are disaggregated to Food & Beverage Services to reflect conditions in the broader sector which includes segments of the night-time economy; and
• data on Covid safety measures, including customer vaccination checks, which are available across economic sectors and disaggregated to Food & Beverage Services.
BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 42 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
Public Attitudes to Coronavirus - Survey data tables
Latest data was published on 8th November 2021 and includes two waves of public attitudes polling that were conducted in October 2021. This research about levels of public knowledge, use and support for the scheme.
Public attitudes to coronavirus: tracker - data tables - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
Covid Status App Downloads statistics
Since 3rd November, the Public Health Scotland COVID-19 Statistical Report has begun publishing weekly statistics on the number of times the Covid Status App has been downloaded, and the number of paper and PDF copies of COVID-19 status.
COVID-19 Statistical Report (publichealthscotland.scot)
Annex B
INFORMATION TO SUPPORT MONITORING – UPDATE TO MATERIAL PROVIDED TO COMMITTEE ON 28 OCTOBER 2021
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Impact on transmission and vaccination
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Evidence of impact of scheme on rates of transmission of the virus |
Information about positive case rates are published. COVID-19 Daily Dashboard | Tableau Public. As is commonly the position with restrictions, it is not possible to establish the exact individual impact of this scheme on wider changes in transmission of the virus. |
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Rates of vaccination by age, sex, disability, race and SIMD area. |
Vaccination data is published by PHS and broken down by age/sex/ethnicity/SIMD. This is not available by disability. COVID-19 Daily Dashboard | Tableau Public COVID-19 vaccinations - COVID-19 - Our areas of work - Public Health Scotland |
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Economic and business impacts
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Turnover in the night-time economy, including any evidence of displacement in the activities directly affected by the scheme. |
Quantified turnover data for Scottish businesses are reported through the Scottish Annual Business Survey (SABS), the most recent data for which covers 2018. 2019 data will be published on 30/11/21. Accurate and timely turnover data is therefore not available.
The Scottish Government publishes rapid indicators of business performance at sectoral level through its analysis of ONS’s Business Insights and Conditions Survey. Data on estimated shares of firms experiencing changes in turnover at Scotland level are now being published for SIC code 56 (Food & Beverage Services), which covers a number of the categories of activities covered within the ‘night-time economy’ (including restaurants, pubs and bars), and this will be reported where sample sizes allow. |
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Attendance levels at the following events, including comparative figures for pre-pandemic levels:
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Data on attendance is not available on a comparable basis across the different types of event. However, information and intelligence provided by business organisations will be used to build a picture of how attendance has been affected. This will be complemented by public attitudes data where possible.
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Breakdown of attendance levels by people in the lower vaccinated groups (e.g. breakdown by age, gender, ethnicity, and geographic area of residence) |
As above. |
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Equality and Human rights impacts
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Number of people who have downloaded the COVID status app and accessed their QR code; and number of people who have requested a paper copy. |
Data on the number of app downloads, paper copies requested, and PDF versions of COVID-19 status downloaded are published weekly by PHS in their COVID-19 Statistical Report. The data does not represent unique individuals as a single user may choose to download the app on multiple devices or request a second paper copy. |
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Breakdown of people using QR codes versus a paper copy by socio-economic profile, such as age, gender, ethnicity, geography. |
Data is not available. Headline data on the number of people who have used the app and the number of paper copies requested will be published in the PHS weekly COVID-19 Statistical Report. In line with the Data Protection Impact Assessment, the processing of personal data is used solely to link to vaccination history to provide COVID status, so no further breakdowns of the data are planned for publication.
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Number of people who have reported difficulties in accessing the COVID status app; their QR code; or paper copies. |
Data is not available on the numbers of people. Users are able to report any difficulties by phoning the COVID Status Helpline. The data released by NHS National Services Scotland under FOI on 1 November stated that since the NSS National Contact Centre (NCC) started assisting with vaccination issues on approximately the 15th July 2021, the NCC have received approximately 42,000 cases with an issue where a case was raised to investigate. Most of the issues relate to vaccination records. A case relates to the issue raised so a person can raise more than one issue and hence have more than one live case created.
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Number of people who have reported inaccuracies with the information contained in their vaccination record. |
Data is not currently available. Users are able to report any issues by phoning the COVID Status Helpline. The data released by NHS National Services Scotland under FOI on 1 November, stated that since the NSS National Contact Centre (NCC) started assisting with vaccination issues on approximately the 15th July 2021, the NCC has received approximately 42,000 cases with issue where a case was raised to investigate. Most of the issues relate to vaccination records. A case relates to the issue raised so a person can raise more than one issue and hence have more than one live case created.
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Public attitudes and behaviours
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Attitudes, knowledge and behaviours
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The Scottish Government regularly publishes data from surveys on attitudes, knowledge and behaviours in relation to the pandemic. Recent survey waves have included a range of questions about public knowledge and support, for the certification scheme, and information about its impact. The most recent information, from surveys carried out since the announcement of the scheme, up to 19-20 October 2021, is published at:
Public attitudes to coronavirus: tracker - data tables - gov.scot (www.gov.scot). The results of further survey waves will be published at the same link, in due course.
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